In connection with the Dec. 29 Jeju Air passenger plane disaster at Muan International Airport, an analysis found that if the concrete embankment for the localizer installed at the crash site had not existed, all passengers might have survived without serious injuries.
According to People Power Party lawmaker Kim Eun-hye, the opposition secretary of the National Assembly's special committee for a parliamentary investigation into the truth of the Dec. 29 air disaster, a research report submitted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board contains these simulation results.
In March last year, the Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board commissioned the Korea Society for Computational Structural Engineering to analyze the impact of the Muan Airport localizer embankment on the damage from the crash. The society used a supercomputer to virtually model the aircraft, runway and facility conditions, then analyzed the collision scenario.
The analysis showed that if the aircraft had not hit the concrete embankment, it likely would have slid along the runway after a belly landing and come to a stop. In that case, it is presumed that no fatal impact would have occurred to passengers.
The results were similar even if the localizer embankment had been installed as a "frangible structure" rather than concrete. The aircraft might have crossed the airport's outer fence and veered into nearby fields, but serious injuries were unlikely, the analysis found.
While the study is not a final investigative conclusion, it is seen as lending weight to concerns raised by the aviation industry and experts who have pointed to the concrete embankment as a factor that aggravated the damage.
According to materials released by Kim, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) said in a recent response submitted to the National Assembly that "the Muan Airport localizer facility did not meet airport safety operating standards." For precision-approach runways, facilities within 240 meters of the landing area end should have been installed as frangible structures, it said.
Immediately after the crash, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) maintained that "there was no legal violation" regarding the concrete embankment. Later, then-Minister Park Sang-woo noted that there were shortcomings in interpreting the regulations, but this is the first explicit acknowledgment of noncompliance.
The localizer safety standards were established in 2003 and applied starting in 2010, after Muan Airport opened. In particular, because the standards were in effect during the localizer upgrade work conducted from 2020 to early 2024, there are calls that corrective measures should have been taken.
Kim said that while the bidding stage for the design contract included a review of a "plan to secure a frangible structure," that content was not reflected in subsequent reporting. She also criticized the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) and Korea Airports Corporation (KAC) for accepting this without raising issues, calling it poor oversight.
Kim said, "With the analysis indicating that everyone could have survived had the embankment not existed, the government's previous explanation has lost credibility," adding, "There must be accountability for the entire process, from design to the upgrade work."