"The core problem for the People Power Party is that public sentiment and party sentiment are far apart, and it is failing to be self-aware. It is not looking itself squarely in the face. Innovation begins with aligning public sentiment and party sentiment. That is the beginning and the end."
Polling experts offered a forecast that the People Power Party will suffer a crushing defeat in the upcoming June local elections. The remarks came at a seminar hosted by People Power Party lawmakers. They also warned that if the party continues to follow party sentiment removed from public sentiment, the party's identity, support base, and leadership will all fall into crisis.
The freshman and sophomore lawmakers' group of the People Power Party, "Alternative and Future," held a forum on the morning of the 7th at the National Assembly Members' Office Building under the theme "The current status of the People Power Party and the direction forward as seen through public opinion polls." At the forum, Park Sung-min, head of the political consulting firm MIN, and Yoon Hee-woong, head of Opinions, assessed the current status of the People Power Party based on polling results.
Experts focused on the following polling indicators to forecast the local elections: ▲ presidential job approval ▲ expectations for the local election outcome ▲ favorability by party. They said evaluations of the government and the ruling party show up in the presidential job approval, and that expectations for the local election outcome allow a read on whether "supporting the administration" or "checking the administration" has the upper hand. They added that party favorability helps gauge whether voters recognize the opposition as an alternative force.
Looking at the specific figures, in a survey by Gallup Korea as of last December of 3,001 adults nationwide aged 18 and older on President Lee Jae-myung's job approval, 58% were positive and 33% were negative. In Oct. last year (3,003 respondents), 56% were positive and 34% were negative, and in Nov. (4,005 respondents), 60% were positive and 30% were negative. The gap between positive and negative evaluations ranges from 22 to 30 percentage points (p).
Regarding which party's candidates—ruling or opposition—should win more seats in the local elections, Gallup Korea's survey of 1,000 adults nationwide aged 18 and older in the second week of last December (Dec. 9–11) found 42% favored "more ruling party candidates elected," while 36% favored "more opposition party candidates elected." In the third week of Oct. last year (1,001 respondents), it was 39% for the ruling party and 36% for the opposition. This indicates that demand for supporting the administration has grown higher than for checking the administration.
There was also a large gap in party favorability between the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea. In a Gallup Korea survey of 1,000 voters nationwide aged 18 and older in the second week of last December (Dec. 9–11) on party favorability, the People Power Party's favorability was 24% and unfavorability was 69%. During the same period, the Democratic Party's favorability was 46% and unfavorability was 45%. The People Power Party's unfavorability was higher by 45 percentage points, while the Democratic Party's favorability was higher even if only by 1 percentage point.
Park Sung-min said, "The People Power Party needs to capture the center, but it is failing at this now, and the most painful point is that it has lost the ability to run state affairs," adding, "What truly hurts is that the public no longer believes it can entrust this party with governing."
He went on, "The People Power Party is in an identity crisis over whether it should become a 'centrist conservative party or move toward a more hard-line conservative party,' and as a result it faces a crisis of its support base and a leadership crisis, a 'triple crisis,'" adding, "Every polling indicator says public sentiment and party sentiment have diverged, yet the People Power Party is still leaning toward party sentiment."
Yoon Hee-woong said, "Even if calls to judge or check the administration take shape, for them to be expressed, the opposition must meet the condition of being 'clean' as the 'rod of correction,'" adding, "Even if the People Power Party puts forward a reform plan, it will be judged based on how voters perceive it."
The presidential job approval survey mentioned above, the expectations for the local election outcome, and the party favorability surveys were conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) using random sampling of virtual wireless numbers from the three mobile carriers. The margin of sampling error for the presidential job approval survey is ±1.7 percentage points per month at the 95% confidence level. The margin of sampling error for expectations for the local election outcome and party favorability is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.