On the 3rd, it was found that last year the export gap between Korea and Taiwan narrowed to the smallest on record. A global artificial intelligence (AI) boom boosted semiconductor exports for both Korea and Taiwan. But Taiwan's semiconductor industry accounts for a higher share of total exports than Korea's, so its export growth rate was much higher. Experts said, "There is a possibility that Taiwan will surpass Korea in per capita GDP."
◇ Korea's exports up 2.8% on last year's semiconductor boom… Taiwan's exports up 34.1%
According to the Korea International Trade Association and Taiwan's Ministry of Finance on the 3rd, Korea's exports for Jan.–Nov. 2025 were $640.1 billion, up 2.8% from a year earlier. Over the same period, Taiwan's exports were $578.5 billion, up 34.1% year over year. The export gap between the two was $61.6 billion, the smallest since 2008, when the trade association began compiling Taiwan's export figures.
The Korea–Taiwan export gap (Jan.–Nov. basis) stayed between $200 billion and $300 billion from 2008 to 2018. After 2019 it shrank to the $140 billion–$190 billion range, and this year, for the first time, fell below $100 billion.
Last year, both Korea and Taiwan benefited from increased semiconductor demand driven by the global AI boom. Another positive factor was that semiconductors were excluded from items subject to the U.S. reciprocal tariff. Korea, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, specializes in manufacturing memory semiconductors such as DRAM and NAND flash. Semiconductors account for a little over 20% of total exports.
Taiwan has internalized the entire semiconductor production process from design to manufacturing to back-end (packaging), led by TSMC, the world's largest foundry (contract chip manufacturing) company. The share of the semiconductor industry in total exports (in the 30% range) is higher than in Korea. If Taiwan includes server exports, including graphics processing units (GPUs), the share of IT and semiconductors rises to 60%.
Considering exchange rate effects, Taiwan appears to have fared even better than Korea. The average won-dollar exchange rate for Jan.–Nov. last year was 1,418 won, up 4.4% from a year earlier (a decline in the won's value). A weaker won is known to help exports by lowering export prices. By contrast, the Taiwan dollar strengthened, moving from 32–33 Taiwan dollars in Jan.–Nov. 2024 to 30–31 last year. Taiwan's exports rose despite a stronger currency.
Park Han-jin, a visiting professor in the Department of Chinese Foreign Affairs and Trade at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said, "Taiwan is so specialized that its entire industry is closely linked to semiconductors, so it was more affected by the semiconductor supercycle," adding, "Korea had the exchange rate effect of a weaker won, but Taiwan achieved these results without a weaker exchange rate." Ahn Ki-hyun, executive director of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, said, "Taiwan's TSMC has seen exports surge as it contract-manufactures AI GPUs for global fabless corporations such as Nvidia and AMD," explaining, "Korea exports HBM to Taiwan, and Taiwan uses it to produce GPUs."
On a full-year basis, the Korea–Taiwan export gap is tentatively estimated to have narrowed to the $50 billion range last year. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, Korea's exports last year were $709.7 billion, up 3.8% from a year earlier. Annual exports surpassed $700 billion for the first time ever. Taiwan's Ministry of Finance projects last year's annual exports at $640 billion.
◇ With the semiconductor boom, Taiwan may overtake Korea in per capita GDP in 2025
Both the Korean and Taiwanese economies are highly dependent on external demand, so exports have a major impact on per capita GDP. As of 2024, per capita GDP was higher in Korea ($36,024) than in Taiwan ($33,234).
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said in its World Economic Outlook report that "in 2025 Taiwan's per capita GDP could reach $37,827, surpassing Korea ($35,962)." The IMF said, "Korea's GDP growth rate will slow from 2.0% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025," while "Taiwan likely recorded a high GDP growth rate of 3.7% last year after 4.3% in 2024."
If this analysis is correct, among the 197 countries included in IMF statistics, Korea's per capita GDP ranking would fall from 34th in 2024 to 37th last year. Conversely, Taiwan would rise from 38th to 35th. The two countries' per capita GDP rankings would switch places.
Professor Park Han-jin said, "In addition to a semiconductor-specialized economic structure, Taiwan's solid overseas networks and a symbiotic structure with mid-sized and small and midsize enterprises centered on TSMC also support economic growth." He added, "Taiwan has a smaller population (about 23 million) than Korea and a higher semiconductor share of the economy, so if the semiconductor boom continues, the trend of overtaking Korea in per capita GDP could continue for some time."