On the 3rd, it was found that last year the export gap between Korea and Taiwan narrowed to the smallest on record. With the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom, both Korea and Taiwan saw an increase in semiconductor exports. However, Taiwan's semiconductor industry accounts for a higher share of total exports than Korea's, so its export growth rate was much larger. Experts said, "Taiwan could surpass Korea in per capita GDP."
◇ Korea's exports up 2.8% on last year's semiconductor boom… Taiwan's exports up 34.1%
According to the Korea International Trade Association and Taiwan's Ministry of Finance on the 3rd, Korea's exports in Jan.–Nov. 2025 were $640.1 billion, up 2.8% from a year earlier. During the same period, Taiwan's exports were $578.5 billion, up 34.1% from a year earlier. The export gap between the two countries was $61.6 billion, the smallest since 2008, when the trade association began compiling Taiwan's export figures.
The export gap between Korea and Taiwan (based on Jan.–Nov.) stayed between $200 billion and $300 billion from 2008 to 2018. After 2019 it shrank to the $140 billion–$190 billion range, and this year, for the first time, fell below $100 billion.
Last year, both Korea and Taiwan benefited from increased semiconductor demand driven by the global AI boom. Another positive factor was that semiconductors were excluded from the U.S. reciprocal tariff list. Korea, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, is specialized in producing memory semiconductors such as DRAM and NAND flash. Semiconductors account for about 20% of total exports.
In Taiwan, led by TSMC, the world's largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) company, the entire semiconductor production process—from design to manufacturing to back-end (packaging)—is internalized. The semiconductor industry's share of total exports (around 30%) is higher than in Korea. If server exports, including graphics processing units (GPUs), are included, Taiwan's share of IT and semiconductor exports rises to 60%.
Taking the exchange rate effect into account, Taiwan appears to have fared even better than Korea. The average won-dollar exchange rate in Jan.–Nov. last year was 1,418 won, up 4.4% from a year earlier (won depreciation). A weaker won is known to help exports by lowering export prices. In contrast, the Taiwan dollar strengthened, moving from 32–33 Taiwan dollars in Jan.–Nov. 2024 to 30–31 Taiwan dollars last year. Taiwan increased exports even as its currency appreciated.
Park Han-jin, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies' Graduate School of International and Area Studies, said, "Taiwan is so specialized that its entire industry is closely tied to semiconductors, so it was more strongly affected by the semiconductor supercycle," adding, "Korea benefited from a weaker won, but Taiwan achieved these results without a weaker exchange rate." Ahn Ki-hyun, executive director at the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, said, "Taiwan's TSMC sharply increased exports by contract-manufacturing AI GPUs from global fabless corporations such as Nvidia and AMD," explaining, "Korea exports HBM to Taiwan, and Taiwan uses it to produce GPUs."
For the full year, the export gap between Korea and Taiwan is tentatively tallied to have narrowed to the $50 billion range. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, Korea's exports last year were $709.7 billion, up 3.8% from a year earlier. Annual exports topped $700 billion for the first time ever. Taiwan's Ministry of Finance projects last year's annual exports at $640 billion.
◇ On the semiconductor boom, Taiwan could overtake Korea in "per capita GDP" in 2025
Both the Korean and Taiwanese economies are highly dependent on external demand, so exports also have a large impact on per capita GDP. As of 2024, per capita GDP was higher in Korea ($36,024) than in Taiwan ($33,234).
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said in its World Economic Outlook report that "in 2025 Taiwan's per capita GDP could reach $37,827, surpassing Korea ($35,962)." The IMF said, "Korea's GDP growth rate will slow from 2.0% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025," while "Taiwan likely recorded a high GDP growth rate of 3.7% last year after 4.3% in 2024."
If this analysis is correct, among the 197 countries included in IMF statistics, Korea's per capita GDP ranking will fall from 34th in 2024 to 37th last year. Conversely, Taiwan will rise from 38th to 35th. The two countries' per capita GDP rankings would flip.
Professor Park Han-jin said, "Taiwan's economy is supported not only by a semiconductor-specialized structure but also by a solid overseas network and a symbiotic structure with mid-sized and small corporations centered on TSMC." He added, "Taiwan has a smaller population (about 23 million) than Korea and a higher semiconductor share in the economy, so if the semiconductor boom continues, the trend of surpassing Korea in per capita GDP could continue for some time."