Even at the same age, the more recently born the cohort, the more clearly it is delaying marriage and childbirth.
The National Data Office released the "2015–2023 demographic dynamics panel statistics" on the 16th. The analysis tracked and linked individual marriage and childbirth histories with residence, jobs, and other factors for Korean nationals born from 1983 to 1995. It examined changes over the three years following the baseline years of 2015 and 2020.
◇ Marriage and childbirth are occurring even later in recent years
Among men age 32 in 2015 (born in 1983), the marriage rate was 42.8%. Three years later at age 35, their marriage rate rose by 13.8 percentage points (p) to 56.6%. In the same age group, the childbirth rate increased by 15.1 percentage points, from 27.1% to 42.2%.
By contrast, among men age 32 in 2020 (born in 1988), the marriage rate was only 32.3%, and three years later it had risen just 10.5 percentage points to 42.8%. The childbirth rate increased by 12.2 percentage points, from 17.8% to 30.0%. Even at the same age, the later the birth year, the more both marriage and childbirth are being delayed.
A similar trend was seen among women. Among women age 32 in 2015 (born in 1983), the cumulative marriage rate was 63.2%, rising by 9.4 percentage points three years later to 72.6%. The childbirth rate increased by 13.6 percentage points, from 46.7% to 60.3%.
However, among women age 32 in 2020 (born in 1988), the marriage rate was only 52.5%, and three years later (61.0%) it had risen by 8.5 percentage points. The childbirth rate increased by 13.4 percentage points, from 34.9% to 48.3%.
◇ Lower birthrates for those living in the greater Seoul area and working at small and mid-sized businesses
Gaps by residence were also identified. Among residents of the greater Seoul area, both men and women had the highest non-childbirth rate in the baseline year, and the lowest rate of childbirth over the following three years.
Among men age 32 in 2020, the non-childbirth rate in the greater Seoul area was 84.5%, up to 7.3 percentage points higher than in the four non-capital regions. Among them, the share who had a child within three years (14.5%) was also about 0.5–2 percentage points lower than in other regions. Among women of the same age, the non-childbirth rate in the greater Seoul area was 77.0%, up to 7 percentage points higher, and the share who had a child three years later was 18.9%, about 2.6–5.3 percentage points lower.
There were also clear differences by job conditions. Among men age 32 in 2020, the non-childbirth rate for workers at small and mid-sized businesses and microbusinesses was 82.5%, higher than for workers at large and mid-tier companies (78.1%), and the three-year change in childbirth was 12.3%, only about half the level of large and mid-tier companies (20.9%).
Among women, the non-childbirth rate for workers at small and mid-sized businesses and microbusinesses was 76.8%, similar to large and mid-tier companies (76.6%), but the three-year change in childbirth was 17.9%, significantly lower than large and mid-tier companies (22.1%).