The local elections are six months away. After handling the budget bill and the first-anniversary martial law event, the ruling and opposition parties are shifting into local election mode. Support for President Lee Jae-myung and the ruling party is high, but inside the Democratic Party some say, "The local elections will not be easy." The party still does not have a sure card to defeat incumbent chiefs from the People Power Party, including the Seoul mayor.
◇ "Not easy to retake the central belt of Seoul, Incheon, and Gangwon"
Seoul is drawing the most attention ahead of the local elections. Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party's Seoul mayor, has already jumped into a bid for a fifth term. Aside from lawmaker Na Kyung-won, no other People Power Party contender is readily stepping forward.
The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is preoccupied with finding a candidate. Several mid-to-senior incumbents have joined the pool. Four-term lawmaker Park Hong-geun (Jungnang B in Seoul) held a press conference in front of Seoul City Hall in Jung-gu on the 26th of last month to become the first within the party to officially declare a run. Three-term lawmaker Jun Hyeon-hee (Jung–Seongdong A in Seoul) also resigned from the Supreme Council on the 1st, saying, "We will complete a government of popular sovereignty uniting the central and local governments and will surely win the upcoming local elections for the Democratic Party's return to power."
In addition, four-term lawmaker Seo Young-kyo (Jungnang A in Seoul), three-term lawmaker Park Ju-min (Eunpyeong A in Seoul), two-term lawmaker Kim Young-bae (Seongbuk A in Seoul), Seongdong District Chief Jeong Won-o in Seoul, and former lawmakers Hong Ik-pyo and Park Yong-jin are also on the list of potential candidates.
On this, a senior Democratic Party lawmaker in the floor leadership said, "There is no one who can overwhelm the incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon," adding, "In the past, someone would have fallen after being attacked this much, but now he is even exasperating."
A Democratic Party official also said, "Many assess that the Oct. 15 real estate measures have made it harder to win over Seoul voters," adding, "It is hard to see the mentioned hopefuls as surpassing Mayor Oh in competitiveness or name recognition."
Accordingly, there is talk of recruiting heavyweights such as Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik.
In Incheon and Gangwon, incumbents from the People Power Party hold the top local posts. Yoo Jeong-bok, the People Power Party's Incheon mayor, is widely expected to seek a third term. In the Democratic Party, three-term lawmakers Park Chan-dae (Yeonsu A in Incheon) and Kim Kyo-heung (Seo A in Incheon), and former Mayor Park Nam-chun are waging a three-way race. A Democratic Party lawmaker familiar with Incheon said, "These local elections come after martial law and impeachment, but Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok is by no means an easy opponent," adding, "If we put up a sloppy candidate, this will be a hard race to win."
In Gangwon, People Power Party Gov. Kim Jin-tae is likely to seek a second term. Lawmaker Yoo Sang-bum is also being mentioned. From the Democratic Party, Presidential Senior Secretary for Political Affairs Woo Sang-ho and former National Assembly Secretary-General Lee Kwang-jae, a former Gangwon governor, are cited as likely contenders.
According to a poll by Gallup Korea commissioned by the Gangwon Domin Ilbo of 805 residents aged 18 or older in Gangwon Special Self-Governing Province on Nov. 23–24, in a hypothetical head-to-head between Gov. Kim Jin-tae and former Gov. Lee Kwang-jae, Kim scored 39% and Lee 49%. In contrast, in a hypothetical matchup between Gov. Kim Jin-tae and Senior Secretary Woo Sang-ho, Kim received 44% and Woo 41%. The margin of error for both surveys was ±3.5%p.
◇ "We really want to take Busan and South Gyeongsang, but…"
For next year's local elections, the Democratic Party views Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang as no less important than Seoul. All three are currently led by incumbents from the People Power Party. Within the ruling camp, some said, "If the Democratic Party captures Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang in the local elections, it would have the effect of shrinking the People Power Party's support base in Yeongnam to Daegu and North Gyeongsang." Until the impeachment turmoil and the presidential election in the first half of this year, that scenario looked highly plausible.
Recently, however, assessments say these regions are also tightening into neck-and-neck contests. In Busan, People Power Party Mayor Park Heong-joon is running for a third term, and lawmaker Kim Do-eup (four-term, Gangseo in Busan) and six-term lawmaker Cho Kyung-tae (Saha B in Busan) are considering runs. From the Democratic Party, Minister Jeon Jae-soo of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and former Busan party chair Lee Jae-seong are mentioned as potential candidates. Polls show a tight race with Mayor Park Heong-joon and Minister Jeon Jae-soo alternating leads.
In Ulsan, People Power Party Mayor Kim Doo-kyum is likely to seek a second term. From the Democratic Party, former Mayor Song Cheol-ho and Presidential Office Secretary for Local Autonomy Development Lee Seon-ho are considering runs. In the South Gyeongsang governor's race, People Power Party Gov. Park Wan-su is preparing for reelection, while in the Democratic Party, Presidential Committee for Decentralization and Balanced Development Chairperson Kim Kyeong-soo is preparing to challenge.
Meanwhile, the gubernatorial races in North and South Chungcheong, which the Democratic Party aims to take back, also look close. In the North Chungcheong race, People Power Party Gov. Kim Young-hwan is likely to seek a second term, while from the Democratic Party former Chief of Staff Noh Young-min, former Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism Minister Do Jong-whan, and Jincheon County Chief Song Gi-seop are mentioned as candidates.
In the South Chungcheong governor's race, People Power Party Gov. Kim Tae-heum is also likely to seek a second term, and among Democrats former Gov. Yang Seung-jo is leading.
A Democratic Party official said, "Recent internal polls show our candidates trailing the People Power Party incumbents in both South and North Chungcheong," adding, "There is a growing view that we must put forward a card that can win."
◇ Fierce intraparty competition in Gyeonggi, Honam, and Jeju where the Democratic Party holds incumbencies
In regions with Democratic Party incumbents—Gyeonggi, South Jeolla, North Jeolla, Gwangju, and Jeju—intraparty competition is fierce. In Gyeonggi, Gov. Kim Dong-yeon is set to seek a second term, but many heavyweight figures inside the Democratic Party are preparing to run, including six-term lawmaker Choo Mi-ae (Hanam A in Gyeonggi), two-term lawmaker Kim Byung-joo (Namyangju B in Gyeonggi), two-term lawmaker Han Jun-ho (Goyang B in Gyeonggi), and three-term lawmaker Kim Young-jin (Suwon C in Gyeonggi).
In South Jeolla, while Gov. Kim Yung-rok is likely to seek a third term, two-term lawmaker Joo Cheol-hyeon (Yeosu A in South Jeolla), three-term lawmaker Shin Jeong-hoon (Naju–Hwasun in South Jeolla), and four-term lawmaker Lee Gae-ho (Damyang–Hampyeong–Yeonggwang–Jangseong in South Jeolla) are also preparing to run. In addition, there is talk that Presidential Chief of Staff for Policy Kim Yong-bum may enter the race. Kim is also being mentioned as a potential candidate for Gwangju mayor.
In the Jeju governor's race, Gov. Oh Young-hun is set to seek a second term, while Democratic Party figures such as three-term lawmaker Wi Seong-gon (Seogwipo in Jeju) and first-term lawmaker Moon Dae-rim (Jeju A) are preparing to declare runs.