As the government plan for the 2035 national greenhouse gas reduction target (2035 NDC) has been released, doubts are growing about its feasibility. Minister Kim Seong-hwan of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment said the ministry "worked to find a balance," but industry officials say "it is already difficult to meet the 2030 target, and yet another overly ambitious target has been set." Environmental groups on the other side criticize that "the target is far too low."
The ministry presented the 2035 NDC government plan at a public hearing held at the National Assembly on the 6th. The government proposed two scenarios to reduce greenhouse gases by ▲about 50–60% or ▲53–60% from 2018 levels by 2035. The final 2035 NDC is scheduled to be submitted to the United Nations after deliberation and approval by the presidential 2050 Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Commission and the Cabinet meeting next week.
According to the government plan, Korea must halve its greenhouse gas emissions within the next 10 years. Last year's greenhouse gas emissions were 651 million tons, but by 2035 they must be reduced to at least 348 million–371 million tons.
◇ NDC targets that inevitably require expanding renewable energy supply, what about power stability?
By sector, the power sector must cut greenhouse gases by at least 69% by 2034. The transport sector must cut 50–60%, waste 53%, buildings 40–54%, fugitives (unintentional emissions) 30%, agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fisheries 26–27%, and industry 24%.
The power sector (-68.8%) still bears the heaviest burden, following the 2030 NDC. To achieve the 2035 NDC, renewable energy installed capacity must increase from the current 34 GW to 130 GW. Under this scenario, in 2035 nuclear power and new and renewable energy would each account for 33% of total power generation.
But the reality is not easy. Because of Korea's climate characteristics, solar and wind output fluctuates greatly. This raises concerns that it could lead to power supply instability or blackouts. With limited land and high population density, installing renewable energy facilities is not easy, prompting criticism that electricity rates will rise.
◇ Cut 1 million tons of mobility carbon over 6 years, but "a target to cut 50 million tons over the next 7 years"
The transport sector has an even longer road ahead. From 2018 to last year, the transport sector reduced greenhouse gases by only 1.3 million tons, but over the next seven years it must cut a massive 48–58 million tons. It would only be possible by replacing at least 3 out of 10 vehicles with electric or hydrogen cars. However, as of the end of Aug., the share of eco-friendly cars, including hybrids, was only 12.2%.
The Minister believes the government should consider even halting production of internal combustion vehicles to expand eco-friendly cars. At a public forum on the 19th of last month, the Minister said, "It seems we need to reduce internal combustion engine vehicles at twice the current pace," adding, "By 2035 or 2040, we should make a decision to stop producing internal combustion vehicles."
The ministry stresses that the transport sector target is achievable by improving charging infrastructure for eco-friendly cars and strengthening after-sales service. A ministry official said, "Sales of internal combustion vehicles may be banned for some vehicle types, such as buses," adding, "Currently, electric vehicles account for about 12% of new cars, but with changes in public perception, the pace of eco-friendly car adoption could accelerate further."
◇ Growing industry concerns of "factories shutting down"… fiscal needs and GDP impact to be disclosed later
The industry sector's greenhouse gas reduction target has been expanded from 11.4% based on 2030 to 24% based on 2035. Industry pushed back against the government, saying, "Because the NDC is linked to allocations in the emissions trading scheme, it acts as a regulation," and urged, "Please present a target that reflects realistic conditions."
Eight industry-specific associations, including the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), in a joint proposal said, "The scenarios do not present concrete reduction measures and grounds for each industry and sector," and urged, "Please clearly present the measures to achieve the target reduction volume." They also asked the government to provide fiscal support, foster a market for low-carbon products, and build carbon-free energy.
Domestic manufacturing is facing deteriorating profitability and management crises due to Chinese oversupply, tariff hikes by major countries, and prolonged domestic demand slump. As a result, concerns persist that the 2035 NDC will not only further burden industrial competitiveness but also damage the domestic economy.
However, the ministry has not disclosed fiscal needs for the 2035 NDC or its impact on gross domestic product (GDP) so far. The ministry said, "It is difficult to disclose the NDC's impact on the economy," adding, "We will disclose it after finalizing a single plan."
Meanwhile, environmental groups also criticized the ministry for presenting two scenarios. The Green Transition Institute said in a commentary that this "reveals that the new government's climate policy lacks a clear philosophy and vision." It added, "Careful design is needed for Korea-style transition finance to support industry," and warned, "If done poorly, it will become a policy that aids greenwashing."