A poll found that Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik would run neck and neck within the margin of error against Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon in next year's local elections. Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Rebuilding Korea Party emergency committee chair Cho Kuk were also in a dead heat with Oh within the margin of error in head-to-head matchups.
Polling firms Media Tomato and News Tomato surveyed 1,001 adults aged 18 and older living in Seoul on 13–14 on a "local election poll," asking, "If Oh Se-hoon runs as the pan-conservative candidate and Chief of Staff Kang runs as the pan-liberal candidate, who would you vote for?" Oh recorded 42.3% and Kang 40.6%, a 1.7 percentage point gap within the margin of error.
The pattern was similar in Oh Se-hoon versus Cho Kuk. In a head-to-head, Oh had 43.2% and Cho, the emergency committee chair, had 41.7%, a 1.5 percentage point gap.
Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, by contrast, led Oh. In a head-to-head, Kim had 44.2% and Oh had 40.6%. The gap between the two was 3.6 percentage points.
Asked who is the most competitive as the next Seoul mayoral candidate from the pan-liberal camp, the results were Park Jumin 12.8%, Cho Kuk 12.6%, Kim Min-seok 9.8%, Seo Young-kyo 6.6%, Jeon Hyun-hee 4.8%, Kang Hoon-sik 4.3%, and Park Hong-keun 1.6%.
For the pan-conservative camp's next Seoul mayoral candidate, the results were Oh Se-hoon 23.2%, Na Kyung-won 11.8%, Han Dong-hoon 7.5%, Lee Jun-seok 6.1%, and Cho Eun-hee 4.8%.
The survey was conducted using a wireless automated response system (ARS) with virtual mobile numbers (safe numbers). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and the response rate is 5.4%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.