The local elections held in the second year of an administration are also a "peak season" for the presidential office's aides. When governing momentum is strong early in a term, they can seize the lead in the primaries with experience in the presidential office. For those who are not sitting lawmakers, this "label" is even more decisive. Four years ago, the local elections were also held during the honeymoon period, just one month after the launch of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. The People Power Party, then the ruling party, swept Seoul, Busan and Chungcheong in a landslide. Although there are many internal and external variables, the results of local elections typically determine the governing momentum for the remainder of the term.
This is why, even when the presidential office's aides were assembled just over 100 days ago, whether they would run in the local elections was already being discussed. With the president's term having just surpassed one year, the ruling bloc is aiming to retake all regions except TK (Daegu–North Gyeongsang). Of the 17 metropolitan mayors and provincial governors, 12 are currently from the People Power Party. However, even if the ruling party wins elsewhere, failing to win back Seoul would inevitably dilute the victory.
◇ "Must retake Seoul for a true victory"…many Yongsan heavyweights in the mix
In fact, the Seoul mayoral race has already emerged as the biggest issue in politics. The People Power Party lit the fuse by raising allegations related to Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, a four-term incumbent lawmaker. A Seoul city council member from the Democratic Party claims that, to secure Kim's election as Seoul mayor, followers of a specific religious group were to be signed up as Democratic Party members and their party dues even paid on their behalf. This has nothing to do with Kim's own intention to run. Still, various polls already view Kim as a presidential contender. It is because a Seoul mayor's bid for the presidency is typically the set path.
Senior political secretary Woo Sang-ho recently publicly denied the "Kim Min-seok candidacy" talk, but Woo himself is being mentioned simultaneously as a candidate for Seoul mayor and Gangwon governor. Woo appeared on SBS's YouTube late last month and said, "It is a nonstarter for the presidential office, which wants all attention focused solely on the president, to draft a sitting prime minister into the local elections." He said it could be possible if Democratic Party leader Jeong Cheong-rae were to request it of the president after a leadership vote, but in a situation where there are already many hopefuls, it is an entirely impossible scenario.
Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik is also in the pool of candidates. He served three terms as a lawmaker from Asan, South Chungcheong. Early in the term, the prevailing view was that Kang would run for South Chungcheong governor. But as the No. 2 in the presidential office, more weight has shifted to drafting him for the more politically weighty Seoul mayor. He has not made any related comments. Attention on the president would be diluted, and the party, which controls nominations, already has a star-studded field. Lawmaker Park Ju-min, who has served as chair of the National Assembly's Health and Welfare Committee and as floor chief, began preparing early for the race, and many sitting Seoul lawmakers, including Jeon Hyun-hee, Park Hong-keun and Seo Young-kyo, are considering running.
Within the ruling bloc, some believe Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party may not clear the primary. Internal survey results are cited that show strong support for lawmaker Na Kyung-won among hard-line conservative party members. The Han River bus, a flagship project of Mayor Oh's, being suspended just 10 days after launch is also seen as a headwind. In the end, Oh acknowledged the problem and apologized. In Gangwon, a competitive structure could form between Woo, a four-term lawmaker from Cheorwon, Gangwon, and People Power Party Governor Kim Jin-tae.
◇ Lee's "political hometown" Seongnam, watching "home district" Gyeyang
The field of candidates for mayor of Seongnam, the president's "political hometown," is also noteworthy. President Lee began his first elected office as Seongnam mayor in 2010, then served as Gyeonggi governor before entering the national political stage. In public settings such as Cabinet meetings and senior secretaries' meetings, the president has cited examples from Seongnam city administration multiple times and instructed ministries to consider scaling them up. Within the aides' group, political affairs secretary Kim Byung-wook, a former two-term lawmaker from Bundang, Seongnam, is mulling a run. He is categorized as part of the original inner circle known as the Group of Seven that supported the once "non-mainstream politician Lee Jae-myung." The incumbent is Shin Sang-jin of the People Power Party, who served four terms as a lawmaker, all from Seongnam.
The Ulsan mayoral race also hinges on whether Yongsan aides will run. Within the ruling bloc, Lee Seon-ho, the presidential office's secretary for balanced regional development, is being discussed as a major candidate. He strengthened local organization while serving three years as head of the Democratic Party's Ulsan chapter. Former Mayor Song Cheol-ho, who has shaken off legal risks, will also try again. Ahead of the 2018 local elections during the Moon Jae-in administration, Song, then favored to win, was accused of receiving money from a businessman, but he was recently acquitted on appeal as well.
Next year's local elections will be held alongside by-elections for National Assembly seats. Gyeyang B in Incheon, President Lee's district, and Asan B in South Chungcheong, Chief of Staff Kang's district, are vacant. Among them, in Gyeyang, there is a possibility that presidential office Spokesperson Kim Nam-joon, the president's "mouth" and closest aide, will run. Kim, who had been the first executive secretary, recently moved to the role of spokesperson following a reassignment. The presidential office said, "We judged it was the right time for a personnel reshuffle and adjusted duties," but the People Power Party said, "This is a personnel move to 'give wings' for local election preparations."