Along with the Seoul mayoral race, the biggest focus of the political world's June 3 local elections is the Busan mayoral race. Busan is both the People Power Party's long-held political stronghold and a region the Democratic Party of Korea has invested effort in. After former Mayor Oh Keo-don resigned in disgrace, People Power Party Mayor Park Heong-joon won a second term, but the mood is different in this election.
According to a poll conducted by Innertech Systems at the request of the Busan Journalists Association on Sept. 29, Minister Jeon Jae-soo of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries ranked first in suitability for the next Busan mayor with 46.6% support. Incumbent Mayor Park Heong-joon garnered only 38.4%. The former minister is leading outside the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points).
In addition to the former minister, figures mentioned as potential candidates in the ruling party include Busan Party Chair Lee Jae-seong, former Busan Vice Mayor Byeon Seong-wan, former lawmaker Park Jae-ho, and former lawmaker Choi In-ho. However, there is no particular disagreement within the ruling bloc that Minister Jeon Jae-soo is the leading contender.
As the prospect of retaking the Busan mayoralty becomes more realistic, the ruling party is also focusing on Busan. Democratic Party leader Jeong Cheong-rae visited Busan for the first time since taking office on Sept. 23 and held the "Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang budget policy council." At the event, Jeong said, "For the 'Bu-Ul-Gyeong 30-minute era,' and to open a new horizon of balanced regional development, we will put all our capabilities into it," and added, "Busan named the construction of the Gadeokdo New Airport as the top priority. Although there have been some recent delays, fortunately 688.9 billion won has been reflected in next year's government budget proposal. As the government continues to express its commitment to pushing the project, we believe it will proceed without a hitch, and the party will actively cooperate and oversee it."
Kim Tae-seon, Ulsan Party Chair, who attended the budget policy council, said, "In next year's local elections, the barometer for the Democratic Party's victory is the victory of Bu-Ul-Gyeong," and added, "In the last presidential election, the president's vote share was 42% in Ulsan, 40% in Busan, and 39% in South Gyeongsang. Whether it can exceed 50% going forward depends on next year's local elections."
Conversely, the People Power Party is in a bind. There are even internal reactions saying the incumbent Mayor Park's competitiveness has waned. A People Power Party lawmaker with a district in Busan said, "Listening to local public opinion, many say the atmosphere has changed considerably from the last local elections," and noted, "There is talk that we should put forward a new figure instead of Mayor Park."
Within the People Power Party, incumbent lawmakers such as Cho Kyung-tae, Kim Do-eup, and Park Soo-young are being mentioned as candidates, and there is also talk of former Busan Mayor Seo Byung-soo entering the race. Some analyze that Mayor Park's recent string of hardline remarks against the government and the ruling party is influenced by this atmosphere.
Mayor Park has continued hardline remarks such as, "The Lee Jae-myung administration scrapping the transfer of the Korea Development Bank to Busan and deciding to establish an investment corporation instead of a Southeast Investment Bank is a clear breach of pledge," and, "The Democratic Party is baring its black tongue to devour the judiciary."
The Democratic Party of Korea is also aiming to retake the South Gyeongsang governor's office. South Gyeongsang is as conservative as Busan. In the 2022 local elections, People Power Party Gov. Park Wan-su defeated Democratic Party candidate Yang Moon-seok by a wide margin, winning 65.7% to 29.4% in the South Gyeongsang governor's race. In this year's presidential election, candidate Kim Moon-soo also led President Lee Jae-myung with 52.03% to 38.23%.
The Democratic Party is poised to recreate the 2018 local elections, when it won the South Gyeongsang governor's race. Under the Lee Jae-myung administration, former South Gyeongsang Gov. Kim Kyeong-soo, who serves as head of the Committee for the Era of Local Autonomy, is preparing to run. A political insider active in South Gyeongsang said the local political mood could be summed up by the comment, "If the line to join former Gov. Kim's camp is 100 meters, the line for Gov. Park Wan-su's camp is 50 meters."
In addition, within the Democratic Party, the name of four-term lawmaker Min Hong-cheol, whose district is Gimhae-si-gap, has been mentioned, and in the People Power Party, former lawmaker Cho Hae-jin is being floated as a candidate.
The Ulsan mayoral race is also expected to be fiercely contested. In the People Power Party, incumbent Mayor Kim Doo-gyeom is expected to seek a second term. Among incumbent lawmakers, Kim Gi-hyeon and Park Sung-min are also being mentioned as part of the potential field.
In the Ulsan mayoral race, the focus is on who will become the Democratic Party candidate to challenge the People Power Party incumbent. Former Ulsan Mayor Song Cheol-ho, Presidential Office Secretary for Local Autonomy Development Lee Seon-ho, Ulsan National University emeritus professor Seong In-soo, and former East-West Power CEO Kim Young-moon are being mentioned as candidates, but the assessment is that no one is clearly ahead yet.
Meanwhile, the Busan mayoral poll was conducted by Innertech Systems at the request of the Busan Journalists Association from Sept. 25 to 26 through an ARS phone survey using wireless virtual numbers (70%) and wired RDD (30%) of 1,010 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Busan. The response rate was 3.1%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.