"We need to find a card that can beat Mayor Oh Se-hoon."
Ahead of next year's local elections, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea is struggling over its candidate for Seoul mayor. A lawmaker who serves as a city/provincial party chair said, "As Seoul home prices rise, the city is becoming increasingly conservative," and noted, "There is no obvious card that can beat the incumbent, Mayor Oh Se-hoon."
Although eight months remain until the local elections, politics has already shifted into election mode. Incumbent lawmakers are announcing their bids one after another, and names of major potential candidates are being floated, both self-declared and by others, focusing on battlegrounds.
According to political circles on the 6th, the hottest battleground for the local elections, regardless of party, is Seoul. In the People Power Party, it is likely that the incumbent, Mayor Oh Se-hoon, will seek a fifth term (third consecutive). In the 2022 local elections, Oh defeated Democratic Party of Korea candidate Song Young-gil by 25 to 0 across all 25 autonomous districts. Oh also won in Eunpyeong, Gangbuk, Nowon, Dobong, Jungnang, Gwanak, and Geumcheon, where the Democratic Party of Korea is strong.
Many in politics expect that Oh will once again run as the People Power Party candidate. Names such as Ahn Cheol-soo, Na Kyung-won, and Bae Hyun-jin are mentioned, but their chances are not great. An aide in the office of a People Power Party lawmaker with a Seoul constituency said, "The recent race for Seoul party chair confirmed that Mayor Oh still has a firm grip on the Seoul party," adding, "It is hard to even bring up another candidate within the party."
In the Democratic Party of Korea, so many candidates are emerging that it is fair to say the field is crowded. They include lawmakers Park Hong-keun (Jungnang B, fourth term), Seo Young-kyo (Jungnang A, fourth term), Park Ju-min (Eunpyeong A, third term), and Jeon Hyun-hee (Jung A–Seongdong A, third term); former lawmaker Hong Ik-pyo (Seocho B, third term); and Jeong Won-o, Seongdong District mayor.
Lawmaker Park Ju-min recently made an official bid in a media interview. In an interview with the Kyunghyang Shinmun, Park said, "I will make Seoul the 'eldest city' that leads the future of the Republic of Korea," and added, "I am running because I am more suited than anyone else to be the real worker who changes Seoul."
Inside and outside the party, some say Park is more competitive outside the Assembly than inside it. A Democratic Party of Korea official said, "It may be hard for him to secure the nomination, but if it goes to a primary, Park has aspects that are actually better than other candidates."
Moves to create think tanks to prepare for the Seoul mayoral race are also continuing. Lawmaker Jeon Hyun-hee recently held a launch ceremony at the National Assembly for the "Global K-Seoul Urban Policy Forum," and former lawmaker Hong Ik-pyo recently held a founding general meeting for the "City and Future" forum at the Roh Moo-hyun Citizens' Center. Both are think tanks to rally supporters and develop policy ideas ahead of the local elections.
However, within the ruling camp, the prevailing analysis is that the currently mentioned candidates alone are unlikely to beat Oh. For this reason, there is also talk that Prime Minister Kim Min-seok or Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik could be drafted into the Seoul mayoral race.
A similar situation is unfolding in the Gyeonggi governor's race. The incumbent, Governor Kim Dong-yeon, is expected to mount a defense of his seat, facing ruling and opposition candidates seeking to unseat him. The difference from Seoul is that, unlike Mayor Oh, whose bid for a third consecutive term is virtually certain, Governor Kim must first clear an internal party contest.
Kim is effectively moving to seek another term. In addition, several current and former Democratic Party of Korea lawmakers are, by their own or others' accounts, being added to the potential field. The most prominently mentioned candidates are Lawmaker Choo Mi-ae (Hanam A, sixth term) and Lawmaker Kim Byung-joo (Namyangju B, second term).
Choo and Kim have recently been courting the Democratic Party of Korea's hardline base at the National Assembly. Choo, as Chairperson of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee, is clashing with People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won, and Kim, as a Democratic Party of Korea supreme council member, has been making hard-hitting remarks day after day.
Also mentioned as potential candidates are Lawmaker Cho Jeong-sik (Siheung B, sixth term), Lawmaker Park Jeong (Paju B, third term), Lawmaker Yeom Tae-young (Suwon C, first term), Lawmaker Lee Un-ju (Yongin D, third term), Lawmaker Han Jun-ho (Goyang B, first term), and former lawmaker Park Kwang-on (Suwon D, third term, non-Lee faction).
In the People Power Party, former presidential contender and former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, who narrowly lost to Governor Kim in the last local elections, is being mentioned, as is former lawmaker Won Yoo-chul (Pyeongtaek A, fifth term). Lawmaker Kim Seon-kyo (Yeoju–Yangpyeong, second term) is also cited as a possible candidate, but since he recently became the Gyeonggi party chair, he is unlikely to run himself.
Incheon mayor, where People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok is seeking a "third term," is also classified as a battleground. Facing the incumbent Yoo, the Democratic Party of Korea is floating former Incheon Mayor Park Nam-chun; Lawmaker Park Chan-dae (third term, Yeonsu A); and Lawmaker Yoo Dong-soo (third term, Gyeyang A) as candidates. A senior Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker said, "There is a high chance of taking back Incheon in this local election," adding, "We need to win by fielding a 'real Incheon' native who was born, raised, and educated in Incheon."
The Gyeyang B by-election in Incheon, to be held alongside the local elections, is also drawing attention as a race of presidential hopeful caliber. In the ruling camp, there is a possibility that Song Young-gil, the Pine Tree Party leader who served five terms in Gyeyang B, will run. In the 2022 local elections, Song ran for Seoul mayor and handed over Gyeyang B, his constituency at the time, to President Lee Jae-myung, who was then the party's senior advisor.
Song is in the appellate trial of his political funds case, and if acquitted, he is likely to return to politics. As President Lee sent a congratulatory message to Song's recent book concert, the likelihood of a Gyeyang B run has grown.
There is also speculation that Kim Nam-joon, the Presidential Office Spokesperson and one of President Lee's closest aides, might run in Gyeyang B. Whoever it is, observers say the president's intention will be crucial.
In the People Power Party, former presidential contender and former Ministry of Employment and Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo is being mentioned as a candidate, and Cho Kuk, interim leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, is also cited as a potential contender for Gyeyang B.