As warming on the Korean Peninsula deepens, weather disasters such as heat waves and torrential downpours have increased, a study found. By the end of the 21st century, heat waves are expected to occur up to nine times more often than now.
The Ministry of Environment on the 18th published the Korea climate crisis assessment report 2025, which compiles scientific evidence and research findings related to the climate crisis in Korea.
The report was published to comprehensively analyze the status of the climate crisis in Korea and present adaptation solutions and implications. Following 2010, 2014, and 2020, this is the fourth edition. Authored with participation from 112 experts, the report analyzes findings from more than 2,000 domestic and international papers and various reports released from 2020 through last year, focusing on the Korean Peninsula.
Working Group I (Korea meteorological Administration) analyzed that weather disasters are increasing as warming on the Korean Peninsula intensifies. The peninsula's average annual temperatures in 2024 and 2023 were 14.5℃ and 13.7℃, respectively, the highest and second highest on record. The warming rate for 1912–2024 (0.21℃/decade) is higher than the rate for 1912–2017 (0.18℃/decade), meaning the warming trend has strengthened over the past seven years (2018–2024).
Working Group I projected that heat waves and torrential downpours will become stronger and more frequent in the future. It also presented study results showing that, depending on the case, the probability of heat waves caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions could increase more than fourfold. The area of extreme rainfall within typhoons is expected to expand by 16% to 37%, and the probability of high sea surface temperatures that can sustain super-strong typhoons could increase at least fivefold.
By the end of the 21st century (2081–2100), the Korean Peninsula's average annual temperature is expected to rise by between 2.3℃ and as much as 7.0℃, depending on the extent of greenhouse gas reductions. Accordingly, heat waves, which currently occur an average of 8.8 days per year, would increase to 24.2 days, or about three to nine times the current level.
Working Group II (Ministry of Environment) confirmed changes in the populations of terrestrial birds due to the climate crisis and changes in land cover. Analysis of occupancy changes in a total of 52 species found that 38% declined, and mismatches in seasonality occurred, such as great cormorants, a winter migratory bird, being observed in summer and great egrets, a summer migratory bird, appearing in winter.
According to the report, sea surface temperatures around Korea rose at twice the global average. The fisheries industry suffered cumulative damages of 347.2 billion won due to high temperatures and 30.8 billion won due to low temperatures over the past 14 years. By 2100, the water temperature in Korea's major intensive aquaculture areas is expected to rise by about 4℃ to 5℃.
In terms of forest management, if the Very high-level climate change scenario is combined with maintaining the current level of forest management, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) absorbed in the 2050s would be 23.08 million tCO2 per year. If the Low-level climate change scenario and a resilient level of forest management are applied, absorption would increase by more than 20%.
Kim Seung-hee, Vice Administrator of the Korea meteorological Administration, said, "We will strengthen the scientific basis for establishing climate crisis adaptation policies through precise monitoring and prediction of the climate crisis," adding, "We will work to ensure that the research achievements of Korea's climate science community are recognized internationally."