A study found that to curb the concentration of the working-age population in major cities, inflows of the middle-aged into small and midsize cities should be encouraged.
Jeong Jong-u, associate research fellow at the Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute, and Lee Cheol-hee, a professor in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University, made this recommendation in a report titled "An analysis of the impact of demographic change on regional labor markets." The two researchers analyzed changes in the economically active population of cities, counties, and districts from 2022 to 2042.
The report forecast that demographic changes will rapidly widen the gap in the economically active population across cities, counties, and districts. While there are currently no cities, counties, or districts with fewer than 10,000 economically active people, the number is expected to increase to 15 by 2042. Conversely, those with 300,000 or more are estimated to rise from 18 to 21.
The report also analyzed that while young adults (ages 20–34) clearly tend to move from small and midsize cities to major cities, the middle-aged (ages 50–64) are more inclined to move from major cities to small and midsize cities.
The report concluded that if the gap in "migration of young adults," the main driver of regional population imbalance, is eased, the future trajectory of inequality in the economically active population across cities, counties, and districts could become more moderate. By contrast, if the middle-aged move less into small and midsize cities, the imbalance could widen further.
Accordingly, it recommended, "If it is difficult to prevent the concentration of young adults in major cities, as an alternative there is a need to strengthen the movement of the middle-aged to small and midsize cities and rural areas."
The report said, "If regional hub cities are developed and conditions are created for young adults to find economic opportunities in the provinces, it could help ease the current gap in youth migration between regions."
It added, "Policies could also be considered that encourage moves from major cities to small and midsize cities by offering economic incentives to the middle-aged and strengthening welfare and medical services."