Kim Jong-un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, arrived in Beijing, China, on the afternoon of the 2nd and is expected to carry out a full itinerary during his visit, according to the National Intelligence Service in a report to the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee. The National Intelligence Service predicted that Chairman Kim is highly likely to stand alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Tiananmen Gate during the military parade on the 3rd, showcasing a "North China-Russia triangular alliance."
According to Lee Seong-kwon, a member of the National Assembly and the People Power Party's secretary for the Intelligence Committee, the National Intelligence Service reported that "Kim Jong-un departed from Pyongyang on the afternoon of the 1st aboard a private train, crossed the border in the early hours of the 2nd, and is scheduled to arrive in Beijing late this afternoon to carry out his itinerary."
It was further analyzed that "this visit to China includes Foreign Minister Choi Son-hui, Kim Seong-nam, the head of the party's international department, and Hyun Song-wol, the deputy director, and there is a possibility that Ri Sol-ju and Kim Yo-jong also accompanied him." It was added that "he is expected to receive special honors, such as comparable security and protocol as President Putin."
The National Intelligence Service also forecasted that "during the military parade on the 3rd, he will stand at the forefront of Tiananmen alongside Xi Jinping and Putin, reenacting a cold war triangular alliance, and that not only a North China summit will be held but also a meeting between North Korea and Russia is likely to take place."
Regarding the backdrop of this visit to China, the National Intelligence Service analyzed it in four ways: ▲expanding external maneuverability through restoration of North China relations ▲securing economic support from China ▲breaking away from biased diplomacy towards Russia ▲securing Chinese support in preparation for dialogue with North Korea and the U.S. and inducing a change in the U.S. attitude.
The National Intelligence Service analyzed that "the possibility of substantial cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia in the immediate future is low," but noted that "this visit to China serves as Kim Jong-un's debut in multilateral diplomacy, intended to showcase the North China-Russia alliance. There is a possibility that bold domestic and foreign measures will be initiated in the future," adding that "North Korea is expected to propose a forward-thinking new national development path or seek reciprocal benefits from Russia while weighing the card for a visit to Russia."
In addition, the National Intelligence Service reported that there is a high likelihood that Chairman Kim will adopt and announce a new national strategy during the 80th anniversary of the founding of the party on October 10 and the influential 9th party congress early next year. There have been precedents in the past where strategic changes were announced at founding anniversary events and party congresses.
Regarding the stance towards South Korea, the National Intelligence Service stated that "there are signs of attitude changes while maintaining the principle of 'two-state theory' that the two states of North and South Korea exist," adding that "through a series of statements attributed to Kim Yo-jong, the unwavering stance towards South Korea is emphasized; however, on the other hand, responses have been observed regarding interests such as the cessation of loudspeaker broadcasts and the repatriation of North Korean fishermen, reflecting an effort to manage the situation." It continued, "We are actively seeking information regarding the remarks made by high-ranking officials of the Lee Jae-myung government towards North Korea, the results of the South Korea-U.S. summit, and the South Korea-Japan summit, indicating a keen interest in our North Korea policy."
It was also noted that "there are indications that North Korea is wary of spreading expectations within North Korea for improving relations, instructing not to respond to South Korea's North Korea policies and approaches," adding that "there is a low awareness of the need to shift or readjust the South Korea policy, and the likelihood of a response regarding inter-Korean relations in the near future is also low."
Regarding the stance towards the U.S., it was analyzed that "there remains a possibility of seeking opportunities for contact while closely monitoring the U.S. attitude."
Meanwhile, the National Intelligence Service explained that in a special audit conducted over the past two months since July, it重点 checked ▲the involvement in the emergency military operations ▲the responses of former directors regarding North Korean incidents ▲the appropriateness of security consulting done by the Election Commission.
In the National Intelligence Service report, the ruling and opposition parties expressed conflicting views. Park Sun-won, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea and the ruling party's secretary, stated, "New facts have been confirmed in the SSANGBANGWOOL North Korean remittance case and the West Sea civil servant murder case."
He added that regarding the SSANGBANGWOOL North Korean remittance case, materials not submitted to the prosecution include circumstances of employing North Korean workers by SSANGBANGWOOL and intelligence documents related to attempted stock manipulation by former chairman Kim Seong-tae and Ahn Bu-soo, chairman of the Asia-Pacific Peace Exchange Association.
Regarding the West Sea civil servant murder case, it was explained that "in July 2022, then-Director Kim Gyu-hyun made a face-to-face report on the investigation results to former President Yoon Suk-yeol, who instructed that a complaint should be filed," and added, "there are reports that former Director Park Ji-won instructed the deletion of intelligence to conceal it, but it has been confirmed that many original and copy versions of the Special Information exist to this day, indicating that Director Park did not delete them."
In response, Lee Seong-kwon, a member of the People Power Party, pointed out that "this special audit has hidden political intentions aimed at criticizing and punishing the previous administration," and noted that "it is concerning that definitive statements have been made about politically sensitive matters, which should not be the final outcome."
The National Intelligence Service plans to continue the special audit until the end of this month and report the final results to the Intelligence Committee before the regular National Assembly.