Last year, North Korea's economy is analyzed to have grown at the largest pace in 8 years. The continued enhancement of national policy projects and expanded economic cooperation with Russia have led to two consecutive years of positive growth in 2023 and 2024. However, the per capita gross national income (GNI) was only at 1/29 of Korea's level.
The Bank of Korea released a report on the estimated economic growth rate of North Korea for 2024 on the 29th, which applies the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) methodology to estimate North Korea's growth rate and various statistics.
According to the report, North Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) last year was 36.9654 trillion won, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year (35.6454 trillion won). This marks two consecutive years of growth following 2023 (3.1%). The 3.7% growth rate is the highest figure in 8 years since 2016 (3.9%).
The Bank of Korea cited the strengthening of national policy projects and expanded economic cooperation with Russia as reasons for the growth of North Korea's economy. Current national policy projects underway include the National Economic Development Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the Regional Development 20x10 Policy (to be introduced in 2024).
By industry, manufacturing increased by 7.0%, driven by facility expansions and an increase in arms exports. This is the highest rate of increase in 25 years since 1999 (7.9%).
The mining sector grew by 8.8% as coal, metal, and non-metal production all increased, and the construction sector also grew by 12.3%, primarily in residential buildings. The mining sector reported its highest growth rate since 1999 (14.2%), while the construction sector saw its highest growth since 2000 (13.5%).
In contrast, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors saw a slight increase in fishing, but reductions in livestock and forestry led to a decline of 1.9%.
Last year, North Korea's industrial structure was heavily weighted towards mining (30.5%), services (29.8%), and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (20.9%).
By industry, North Korea's share of mining last year decreased from 30.7% to 30.5%, services from 30.9% to 29.8%, and agriculture, forestry, and fishing from 22.0% to 20.9%. The share of electricity, gas, and water supply increased from 5.4% to 7.2%, and construction from 11.0% to 11.6%.
Last year, North Korea's nominal GNI was recorded at 44.4 trillion won, which is about 1/58 of Korea's (2593.8 trillion won), representing a level of 1.7%. The per capita GNI was 1.719 million won, about 3.4% of Korea's 50.12 million won and 1/29 of it.
In 2024, North Korea's external trade volume (total exports and imports of goods, excluding cross-border trade with South Korea) is expected to be $2.7 billion, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous year ($2.77 billion). Exports ($360 million) increased by 10.8% mainly in cosmetics and wigs, but imports ($2.34 billion) decreased by 4.4% mainly in fertilizers and grains.
Last year, cross-border trade between North and South Korea was nil. The scale of North-South trade reached $332.6 million in 2016 but sharply declined after the shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex that year, dropping to $3.9 million in 2020, $1.1 million in 2021, and $100,000 in 2022, with no performance recorded in 2023 and last year.