The tariff negotiations with the United States have been finalized, and as the people's livelihood recovery consumption coupons are released, a measure reflecting corporations' economic sentiments has risen for the first time in three months.
According to the results of the 'August corporate economic survey' announced by the Bank of Korea on the 27th, this month's Corporate Business Sentiment Index (CBSI) rose 1.0 points (p) from the previous month to 91.0. After consecutive declines in June and July, it has improved this month.
The CBSI is a sentiment indicator calculated based on five major indices from manufacturing and four from non-manufacturing within the Corporate Business Survey Index (BSI).
The August CBSI recorded its highest level in nine months since November of last year (91.8). However, it remains below the long-term average level. Setting the long-term average (2003–2024) at 100 means that if the CBSI is lower than this, it indicates a pessimistic sentiment among corporations in the overall economy.
Lee Hye-young, head of the Economic Sentiment Survey Team at the Bank of Korea, noted, "With the conclusion of the tariff negotiations, uncertainties regarding trade have diminished, and exports, particularly in semiconductors and automobiles, are performing well," adding that "the non-manufacturing sector has also improved due to the vacation season and the people's livelihood recovery consumption coupons."
By industry, the manufacturing CBSI (93.3) rose 1.4 points from last month, primarily due to product inventories and business conditions. The non-manufacturing CBSI (89.4) also increased by 0.7 points as business conditions and sales improved. The non-manufacturing CBSI has reached its highest level in nine months since November last year (92.5) and has maintained an upward trend for two consecutive months since last month.
The September CBSI forecast is 91.8 for all industries, 92.1 for manufacturing, and 91.5 for non-manufacturing. These values have risen by 3.4 points, 1.1 points, and 4.7 points from this month's forecasts, respectively. Notably, the increase for all industries and non-manufacturing this month is the largest since May 2021.
The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) for August, which reflects the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) in the BSI, stands at 94.6, rising by 1.7 points from the previous month. During the same period, the seasonally adjusted ESI cycle fluctuation value (92.4) rose by 0.8 points.