The People Power Party's national convention is approaching its final stages, with voting by party members and the general public set to take place in one day. Evaluations suggest that candidates opposing impeachment have the upper hand due to the Special Counsel investigation into Kim Keon-hee and the raid on the party's headquarters. Candidates supporting impeachment are in a last-ditch effort to secure even one more vote through voter encouragement.
According to the political arena on the 19th, the People Power Party will conduct voting for the electoral roll and public opinion surveys over two days on the 20th and 21st. The main competition for party leader will be conducted with 80% voting from party members and 20% from the general public. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates on the 24th and 25th, with the final selection of the party leader taking place on the 26th.
Candidates opposing impeachment and supporting impeachment have utilized different strategies since the beginning of the party leadership race. Candidate Kim and Candidate Jang have maintained ties with Jeon Han-gil, a history instructor who supports former President Yoon Suk-yeol, criticizing the actions of the reformists within the party as 'internal sabotage.' In contrast, Candidate Ahn and Candidate Jo have continuously urged for an apology regarding the state of emergency and impeachment, as well as a severance from pro-emergency powers.
◇The leaning trend toward 'anti-impeachment'... Attention on the runoff
The atmosphere is leaning toward candidates opposing impeachment. In the party leader election, the high ratio of party members' votes gives a decisive influence to party sentiment. Especially with the raid on the party headquarters, the pardoning of Jo Kuk and Yoon Mi-hyang, and the Democratic Party's enforcement of legislation, party sentiment has tilted toward candidates Kim Moon-soo and Jang Dong-hyuk. Candidate Kim has embarked on an indefinite sit-in at the party headquarters, while Candidate Jang has led protests in front of the court that issued a warrant.
A poll conducted by Hankook Gallup among 1,007 citizens aged 18 and older nationwide from the 12th to the 14th indicates that the support rate among supporters of the People Power Party is 46% for candidate Kim Moon-soo, 21% for candidate Jang Dong-hyuk, and 9% for candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Jo Kyung-tae in that order. This survey was conducted using randomly selected virtual numbers for wireless telephone interviews. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. (For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Polling Review Committee.)
The key is whether there will be a runoff between candidates Kim and Jang. The prevailing view within the party is that the party leader election will become a competitive arena for candidates opposing impeachment unless there is a major upset. It is speculated that Kim could be directly elected, or that a runoff between candidates Kim and Jang is likely. However, while candidate Kim has received overwhelming support from party members, there are indications that candidate Jang is closing the gap in approval ratings.
In fact, a survey conducted by Media Tomato among supporters of the People Power Party and undecided voters from the 11th to the 12th showed that candidate Kim received 32% and candidate Jang received 30.2%, indicating a close contest. This survey was conducted entirely by wireless automated response system. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. (For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Polling Review Committee.)
◇The unification of Ahn Cheol-soo and Jo Kyung-tae is a 'warning signal'
There were discussions of unification among candidates supporting impeachment, who are relatively at a disadvantage, but this does not seem to be realized. Candidate Jo Kyung-tae publicly requested unification from candidate Ahn Cheol-soo multiple times, but candidate Ahn did not respond. It appears candidate Ahn considered that the practical benefits of unification were minimal.
Candidate Jo has also given up hope for unification. On this day, Candidate Jo held a press conference at the National Assembly and stated, 'Candidate Ahn ignored the urgent call for unification of reformist candidates and did not accept the proposal for unification. I apologize to all those who yearn for unification of reformist candidates,' adding, 'Although unification will remain just an echo, I urge the citizens and party members to choose a reformist unification candidate.'
Candidate Ahn is in the position that unification is not possible in a primary that includes a runoff vote. Candidate Ahn appeared on Yonhap News TV on this day and stated, 'I have never heard of unification in a candidate leadership election that includes a runoff.' He added that 'party members and citizens will create unification through their votes.'
Candidates supporting impeachment are expected to focus on relatively centrist-conservative party members who are still deliberating about the party leader election. A representative from candidate Ahn's camp noted, 'As over 30% of respondents in the polls are nonrespondents, we plan to engage in activities encouraging increased participation in the national convention voting going forward.'