Lee Jae-myung's presidential approval rating has reached its lowest since taking office. For the first time on a daily basis, it fell below 50%. There are analyses that controversies surrounding the pardon of former Justice Minister Cho Kuk and confusion over the criteria for imposing capital gains tax on stock transfers negatively impacted the approval rating.
According to Realmeter, which conducted a survey on the evaluation of President Lee Jae-myung's governance at the request of the Energy Economics Newspaper from 11th to 14th, 51.1% of the 2,003 voters aged 18 and older rated it positively, a drop of 5.4 percentage points from the previous week. This is the lowest since President Lee took office. Conversely, the percentage of voters who rated it negatively rose to 44.5%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points in just one week.
In particular, on a daily basis, the 50% barrier was broken for the first time. On the 12th, when controversies arose regarding the special pardon on Liberation Day, it recorded 54.3%, and on the 13th, when heavy rainfall damage occurred in the metropolitan area, it recorded 53.3%. Then, on the 14th, it recorded 48.3%, falling below 50% for the first time. Thus, the approval rating has continued to decline over the week.
Reallmeter evaluated that the controversies surrounding the special pardon on Liberation Day that involved former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, confusion within the ruling party regarding the criteria for capital gains tax on stock transfers, and the political burden caused by the simultaneous imprisonment of former presidents have negatively impacted President Lee's approval rating.
A Realmeter official noted, "It seems that the policies centered on the strong support base of the Democratic Party have led to the alienation of moderate voters," adding, "Regionally, the decline was particularly pronounced in areas severely affected by the heavy rainfall, such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong, which may have been influenced by evaluations of disaster response."
The simultaneous decline in approval ratings among the '2030' and '4050' age groups is notable. The approval rating for President Lee among voters in their 20s dropped from 43.5% to 34.4%, a decrease of 9.1 percentage points. The negative rating was 59%, the highest across all age groups. The approval rating for those in their 30s also fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, breaking the 50% barrier.
Even among the '4050' demographic, which is considered to be part of President Lee's support base, cracks are appearing. The approval rating among voters in their 40s fell from 70% to 63% in just one week, and the approval rating among those in their 50s declined from 66% to 59.2%, a drop of 6.8 percentage points.
The decline in approval ratings for the '2030' age group appears to be significantly influenced by the controversy surrounding the special pardon involving former Representative Cho. The '2030' generation, sensitive to issues of fairness, feels that the pardon of Mr. Cho is unjust.
On the other hand, the decline in approval ratings among the '4050' demographic seems to be influenced by the controversy surrounding the criteria for capital gains tax on stock transfers. The government has decided to lower the criteria for major shareholders from 5 billion won to 1 billion won and is maintaining this decision despite opposition from stock investors.
A spokesperson for the People Power Party noted, "The '4050' generation is ideologically moderate and progressive, but economically they are a generation that actively engages in stock and real estate investments," adding, "If there are missteps in stock and real estate policies, the '4050' generation, sensitive to economic issues, could turn away."
The fluctuations in party support are more pronounced. According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on 13th to 14th among 1,001 voters aged 18 and older, the support rating for the Democratic Party of Korea dropped to 39.9%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous week. The support rating for the People Power Party recorded an increase of 6.4 percentage points, reaching 36.7%. The gap between the two parties, which was 18.1 percentage points in the first week of August, narrowed to 3.2 percentage points in just one week.
Realmeters stated, "Interest in the People Power Party's National Convention is rising, and the ruling party's offensive through criticisms of the special pardon, and the backlash against the investigation into Kim Keon-hee and the raid on the People Power Party headquarters seem to have induced cohesion among the conservative base."
Both surveys were conducted using automated telephone response methods. The margin of error for the presidential approval rating survey is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, while the margin of error for the party support survey is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The response rates were 5.2% and 4.7%, respectively. For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Review Committee.