The reinstatement of former Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk through a special pardon on Liberation Day has complicated the calculations of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea as he officially announced his candidacy for the June elections four days later. It is predicted that whether the Rebuilding Korea Party and the Democratic Party merge could directly impact the dynamics of next year's local elections and by-elections, as well as the race for the next presidential election.
On the 18th, former leader Cho appeared on the YouTube show of broadcaster Kim Eo-jun and stated, "In any case, I will seek the people's choice in June next year." This statement leaves open the possibility of running in by-elections for positions such as the mayors of Seoul and Busan, as well as the Incheon Gyeyang and Chungnam Asan districts. It completely overturned the expectation that he would quietly continue his activities shortly after his reinstatement.
The Rebuilding Korea Party has been supporting President Lee Jae-myung in the last presidential election without running a candidate, effectively becoming a pillar of the broad democratic camp. However, with former leader Cho's official announcement of his 'candidacy for next year's election,' the political landscape within the ruling camp is expected to inevitably change. If they merge with the Democratic Party, it could strengthen the consolidation of the progressive camp, but if it fails, it may create a favorable situation for the People Power Party due to vote dispersion.
Moreover, the fact that former leader Cho is seen as a key part of the 'pro-Moon (Moon Jae-in) faction' is a burden for the mainstream of the Democratic Party. If he achieves results in next year's local elections, there is a possibility that he may rapidly emerge as a potential candidate for the next presidential election centered around the pro-Moon camp.
The internal reactions within the Democratic Party are mixed. Democratic Party lawmaker Park Ji-won noted in an SBS radio interview, "The Rebuilding Korea Party has a future only if we merge before the local elections," advocating for a proactive merger. On the other hand, a lawmaker from the metropolitan area who is up for reelection said, "It is not the right time yet. It won't be too late to decide whether to compete (around the end of the year) or merge," expressing a cautious view. On that day, former leader Cho also remarked, "The first step is to marginalize the People Power Party as a minority, and then we'll see who occupies the empty space next," drawing a line on the merger discussions.
However, alongside former leader Cho's official candidacy announcement, his legal risks remain a significant burden for the broader ruling camp. Since his prison sentence was confirmed due to charges of corruption related to his children's entrance exams last year, concerns that this is 'out of touch with public sentiment' remain unresolved. In fact, immediately after his reinstatement, some opinion polls showed a decline in support for the Democratic Party and President Lee Jae-myung. A Democratic Party lawmaker who is up for reelection mentioned, "If there are competitors, we can expect a 'catfish effect' that strengthens the party," but added, "I wish he had shown more signs of reflection; there's a feeling of disappointment in that regard.
On that day, former leader Cho applied for reinstatement in the Rebuilding Korea Party, beginning his steps toward a political comeback. The party is preparing for a vote among all members to shorten the current leadership's term and hold an early national convention. A new leadership is expected to be elected around November. Depending on how the merger with the Democratic Party, its timing, and the management of legal risks unfold, it is anticipated that they will influence not only next June's local elections but also the subsequent presidential race.