The 8.22 National Convention to elect a new party leader of the People Power Party is just five days away. Although candidate Kim Moon-soo is ahead in member preference, there are also predictions that securing a majority of votes in the first round may be difficult. If a runoff is held between the top two candidates, it may be possible to overturn the results through alliances among the candidates.
The main primary of the People Power Party will select the party leader based on a ratio of 80% votes from the party members and 20% from public opinion polls. Voting will take place for responsible party members and the general public on the 20th and 21st. If there is no candidate who secures a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff will be held four days later between the top two candidates.
So far, candidate Kim Moon-soo, a member of the anti-impeachment faction (opposed to the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol), is significantly ahead. According to the results of a survey conducted by Korean Gallup on the 15th, applying the rules of the People Power Party's main primary, Kim earned 31% for first place. Candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Jang Dong-hyuk each garnered 14%, while candidate Jo Kyung-tae received 8%.
Among the supporters of the People Power Party, Kim's approval rating rises to 46%, with candidate Jang at 21.5% and candidates Ahn and Jo each at 9%.
In a poll conducted by Media Tomato on behalf of New Tomato, targeting 1,037 individuals aged 18 and older from the 11th to the 12th, candidate Kim achieved 37.8%, closely competing with candidate Jang at 35.1%. Candidates Ahn and Jo received 8.8% and 8.6%, respectively.
Although candidate Kim consistently ranks first in various polls, he is struggling to secure a majority of votes. The dynamics of the competition may change depending on who places second in the runoff. There could be significant differences between a runoff between anti-impeachment candidate Kim and candidate Jang and a situation where pro-impeachment candidates Ahn or Jo place second.
Pro-impeachment candidate Jo continues to advocate for a unification of candidates with Ahn, described as the 'innovative candidate,' while former representative Han Dong-hoon also urged the need for unification among so-called 'innovative candidates' on Facebook the day before, stating, "The coalition and sacrifices of rational candidates can rekindle hope."
The remaining schedule is also a variable. The People Power Party will hold televised debates for the party leader candidates on the 17th and 19th. If a runoff occurs, the top two candidates will participate in another televised debate on the 23rd.
Candidates Kim and Jang are enhancing their efforts in the lending struggle, while candidates Ahn and Jo are focusing on strengthening their reform image. Candidate Kim has begun a sit-in to prevent the attempted search of party headquarters by the special investigation team regarding Kim Keon-hee. Candidate Jang is conducting a one-person protest condemning the special investigation.
Candidate Ahn is taking bold actions, such as participating in a protest at the Liberation Day celebrations with a sign opposing the pardons for 'Jo Guk and Yoon Mi-hyang' and posting a photo of the 'Justice Stick' on social media. Candidate Jo is enhancing his reform image by reaching out to former representative Han and Yun Hee-sook, the innovation committee chair.
Whether the leader of the People Power Party will be from the pro-impeachment or anti-impeachment faction is likely to impact the future political landscape. Jeong Cheong-rae, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, remarked, "I sincerely hope the People Power Party returns to being a reasonable and normal political party." The previously stringent stance toward the opposition seems to have softened. There are forecasts within the ruling party that if a pro-impeachment candidate becomes party leader, it could alter the relationship between the ruling and opposition parties.
In contrast, if an anti-impeachment candidate becomes the party leader, it is expected that the ongoing hardline confrontation will continue.
The survey cited in the article was conducted using randomly selected wireless phone virtual numbers provided by three mobile carriers, utilizing the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) method, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The contact rate was 42.1%, and the response rate was 13.4%.
The Media Tomato survey was conducted via the ARS (RDD) wireless phone method, with a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The response rate was 4.3%.
For more details, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.