As the possibility of a special pardon for former Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kook on Aug. 15 grows, the perspectives within the ruling camp vary regarding its potential impact on next year's local elections. While some view the pardon as forming a competitive structure with the Democratic Party, potentially leading to a crack within the ruling party, others suggest it may not be a significant factor due to a perceived lack of 'reform clarity.'
According to political and legal circles on the 9th, former leader Cho has been included on the list of candidates for review by the Ministry of Justice's pardon review committee. Minister Jeong Seong-ho will report the decision of the pardon review committee to President Lee Jae-myung, and the final decision will be made after deliberation at the Cabinet meeting on the 12th.
The presidential office stated, "The confirmed list will be known at the time of the announcement after the Cabinet decision," but political circles observe that the pardon has already become a foregone conclusion. Since the Ministry of Justice's Prosecutorial Affairs and the presidential office are coordinating to finalize the list, its inclusion is interpreted as reflecting President Lee's intentions.
If the pardon is confirmed, former leader Cho will be released after spending eight months in prison due to child admission fraud charges from last December. If reinstatement is also achieved, the removal of political activity restrictions could unsettle the political landscape depending on the timing of his return and actions.
If former leader Cho is reinstated, it is expected that the Rebuilding Korea Party, currently in a 'caretaker system,' will hold an early party convention to re-nominate him as the party leader. There are also forecasts that he may run for mayor of Busan or other regional government positions in next year's local elections.
In particular, if the 'Cho Kook effect' is maximized in the Honam region, there is an outlook that the Democratic Party's election strategy may become complicated. This is why some within the Democratic Party have advocated for a 'year-end pardon theory.' The idea was to delay former leader Cho's return to block any chance of his influence in the local elections. A Democratic Party official noted, "If former leader Cho's activities become more pronounced, the election dynamics in Honam and some metropolitan areas could change."
The Rebuilding Korea Party secured over 6.87 million votes (24.25%) in the 22nd general election, earning 12 seats and becoming the third-largest party in the National Assembly. It recorded over 40% of the vote in Honam regions such as Gwangju (47.72%), Jeonbuk (45.53%), and Jeonnam (43.97%), and received more support than the Democratic Party's proportional satellite party in Sejong and Busan. This suggests that the 'Jiminbi Jo' (Democratic in constituency, Rebuilding Korea Party in proportional representation) strategy was effective.
The Rebuilding Korea Party is also quietly anticipating the 'Cho Kook effect.' A party official stated, "We are cautiously watching (the pardon decision) until the very end," but also acknowledged, "It is true that, being a new party, we achieved favorable results due to former leader Cho's recognition during the last general election. If he is pardoned and reinstated, there are aspects we are hopeful for in next year's local elections. We believe it will overall help stabilize party operations."
On the other hand, there are observations that the current 'hardline reform line' under Jeong Cheong-rae will leave little room for differentiation. A ruling party official commented, "In the last general election, there was no difference in the perspective of the progressive camp whether they gave their vote to the Rebuilding Korea Party or the Democratic Party. That's why the 'Jiminbi Jo strategy' was possible," adding that "voters do not seem to feel a significant difference when the Rebuilding Korea Party and the Democratic Party push for reform legislation."
Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon analyzed, "The ruling party likely believes that even if they grant a pardon to former leader Cho, there will be no major threat in Honam," adding, "Considering President Lee's high approval ratings, it is not likely to be a decisive factor in next year's local elections."