As the tariff negotiations concluded between the United States, Japan, and Australia include issues of agricultural market opening, it appears that agricultural market opening will also be a key agenda in the Korea-U.S. trade negotiations. Amid signals of unusual currents as high-level Korea-U.S. trade talks have been repeatedly cancelled, it has been noted that the government's defensive strategy to exclude rice and beef from negotiations is being put to the test.
According to foreign media and government agencies on the 25th, the United States recently concluded trade negotiations with Japan and Australia, promoting agricultural market opening as a major achievement. Japan, which had maintained a rigid stance, eventually opened its market by expanding imports of U.S. rice, while Australia decided to lift restrictions on the import of U.S. beef to expedite trade negotiations.
U.S. President Donald Trump is ramping up pressure by saying, "Only countries that agree to open their markets will receive tariff reduction benefits." As most major countries that have signed trade agreements with the United States have already lowered their import barriers on agricultural products, it is expected that the U.S. will intensify its pressure regarding agricultural market opening in the Korea-U.S. negotiations.
The government still holds the position that it cannot relax restrictions on the rice and beef markets. In the case of rice, Korea finds it difficult to accept the U.S. demands like Japan did. Japan imports 767,000 tons of rice duty-free each year, and for quantities exceeding this, a tariff of about 341 yen per ton is imposed. This duty-free amount is managed under a "global quota" system, providing bidding opportunities to all exporting countries. Total quantity adjustments are possible by increasing imports from the U.S. while reducing amounts from other countries.
In contrast, Korea imports 408,700 tons of rice (white rice) annually at a low tariff (tariff-rate quota) of 5% as a result of negotiations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2014, and a high tariff of 513% applies to quantities exceeding this limit. Korea has already set a "country quota" with five countries, including the U.S., China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Australia. To solely increase the import quantity from the U.S., negotiations must simultaneously take place with the other four countries for quantity adjustments. Concerns have been raised that adjusting the tariff-rate quota may expand the diplomatic front, as it would involve reducing quantities from other countries while increasing only those from the U.S. The government believes that resolving the issue with a strategy aimed at "soothing the U.S." will be difficult.
The same applies to beef. Currently, Korea only imports U.S. beef from cattle under 30 months of age. This condition was set in consideration of public opinion during the mad cow disease crisis in 2008, which led to candlelight vigils. The U.S. has long demanded that the Korean government allow imports of beef from cattle over 30 months of age, but the government has consistently maintained a "no-go position." It is the government's stance that beef should not be on the agenda in this trade negotiation.
However, the U.S. is employing strategies to shake up the negotiation table by canceling a high-level meeting at the last minute. The 2+2 meeting of finance and trade ministers scheduled to take place in Washington, D.C. on the 25th was postponed due to the U.S.'s unilateral cancellation notice, and the meeting between National Security Office Chief Suh Hoon and U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio was also changed to a phone conversation as President Trump suddenly summoned Secretary Rubio.
Considering the precedent of the U.S. successfully enforcing agricultural market opening with its negotiating partners, there are uncertainties regarding whether Korea's negotiation principles to protect rice and beef can be sustained. The government is considering a strategy to defend sensitive core items like rice and beef while responding flexibly in other agricultural sectors. The import of U.S. crops like apples, potatoes, peaches, and corn for bioethanol is mentioned as potential negotiation cards.
Experts analyze that if the intensity of U.S. pressure increases, it may not be easy to defend sensitive items. Choi Seok-young, an advisor at Lee & Ko and former trade ambassador of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, noted, "We are in a situation where the trade negotiations are like an unbalanced game, and if the U.S. demands agricultural market opening, we have no choice but to concede to some extent. We will strive to defend agricultural products, but if the U.S. pushes forward fully, the defensive line may be breached."
Kim Heung-jong, former head of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), said, "We must adequately explain that we are already importing a significant amount of U.S. rice and beef," and suggested, "We need to defend sensitive items as much as possible and find breakthroughs in negotiations through other means, such as expanding investment in the U.S."