In the 21st presidential election, Kim Moon-soo, the People Power Party candidate, lost to Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea candidate, leading to a change in administration. This unprecedented election occurred under the extraordinary event of the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, triggered by a martial law declaration in December last year. Kim found himself trapped by the "judgment on rebellion forces" frame and failed to expand to moderates, ultimately not securing victory.
Failure to unify the conservative camp was also a major reason. Kim attempted to ally with centrist figures like Lee Nak-yon and Sohn Hak-kyu, but faced limitations due to lukewarm support from key figures within the conservative camp and the breakdown of unity with candidate Lee Jun-seok.
◇ Kim unable to escape Yoon Suk Yeol's shadow
This expedited presidential election was conducted in unprecedented circumstances, with former President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of martial law and the Constitutional Court's acceptance of impeachment. The Democratic Party defined this as "judging rebellion forces" and led the election campaign.
In response, candidate Kim Moon-soo used the slogan "Stop Lee Jae-myung's dictatorship." However, Kim failed to draw clear boundaries from former President Yoon. Although opposing the martial law itself, Kim took ambiguous stances on core issues like treason charges, and with many "pro-Yoon" figures joining his campaign, questions about his willingness to reach out to moderates remained.
Former President Yoon seeking public support for candidate Kim through Pastor Jun Kwang-hoon also gave rise to the Democratic Party's attack using the "rebellion frame." Candidate Lee Jae-myung directly pointed out, "The candidate receiving support from rebellion leaders and far-right figures is none other than Kim Moon-soo."
Commentator Park Sang-byeong noted, "The presidential election frame was already set during the Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment. Changing it was difficult." Commentator Hwang Tae-soon also pointed out, "The public sees Yoon and Kim as overlapping like shadows. In politics, perception, not facts, matters."
◇ Embracing Lee Nak-yon but failed in uniting conservatives or expanding to moderates
Candidate Kim tried to construct a "big tent against Lee Jae-myung" in alliance with Lee Nak-yon, senior adviser of the New Future Democratic Party, and former Bareunmirae Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu, but ultimately failed to achieve substantive moderate expansion.
Conservative figures who competed in party primaries, like former leader Han Dong-hoon and former mayor Hong Joon-pyo, were lukewarm in supporting candidate Kim. Han only joined the campaign trail toward the end of the official election period in a limited capacity.
Efforts to unite candidates also failed across the board. During the unification talks with former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, differences between the sides and involvement from party leadership escalated conflicts, exacerbating internal strife and causing some supporters to leave.
Candidate Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party, who was the third runner, steadfastly held onto the position of "no unification" and ultimately completed his campaign without merging, which dispersed the conservative vote and critically impacted Kim's ability to expand and attract moderates.
Commentator Choi Soo-young noted, "Former mayor Hong left, and former leader Han participated in campaign support lukewarmly," adding, "failing to embrace the Reform Party resulted in an inability to form a unified front in the conservative camp."
The symbolic support from former presidents like Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye apparently overlapped with the core group initially backing candidate Kim, thus providing no substantial assistance in expanding his reach.