The Democratic Party of Korea's 'pressure on the judiciary' has emerged as the biggest variable right before the presidential election. As the Democratic Party pressures the Supreme Court in various ways following the retrial of the case against candidate Lee Jae-myung for violating the Public Official Elections Act, the candidate's approval rating has shown a declining trend in polls. Concerns are growing that this has increased the aversion of centrist voters, which could determine the outcome of the election.
The Democratic Party's official position is that this approval rating trend is a result of 'conservative consolidation' and 'polling bias against conservatives.' However, the leadership has decided to immediately withdraw the controversial legislative proposals related to the judiciary. Addressing the 'phobia' that candidate Lee Jae-myung would unilaterally wield legislative, administrative, and judicial power if elected has been identified as a key task.
The Democratic Party's Central Election Countermeasures Committee announced on the 26th that it has instructed lawmakers Park Beom-kye and Jang Kyung-tae to withdraw their respective amendments to the Court Organization Act. The amendments would allow non-lawyers to be appointed as Supreme Court Justices and increase the number of Supreme Court Justices from the current 14 to a minimum of 30 to 100. Chief Spokesperson Jo Seung-rae stated, "This was a decision made to align the party's position and prevent unnecessary misunderstandings from continuing."
◇ Lee's declining approval rate raises concerns… "A serious election concept"
The decision from the election campaign committee came just one day after the candidate expressed his stance during a press conference. Candidate Lee said the previous day, "I instructed the election camp not to create further controversy regarding judiciary issues," adding, "While individual lawmakers can propose bills as independent constitutional institutions based on their beliefs, it is not the party's stance." He also remarked, "Although I am a legal professional, it's not a simple matter to open the Supreme Court to non-lawyers."
Many agree that this action is not unrelated to changes in the approval rating. The decline of candidate Lee Jae-myung's rating, which had been above 50%, has been consistently observed in major polls. In the latest three polls by Realmeter, Lee's approval ratings fell from 50.2% (14th-16th) to 48.1% (20th-21st) to 46.6% (22nd-23rd). In contrast, Kim Moon-soo, the candidate from the People Power Party, changed from 35.6% to 38.6% to 37.6%.
In particular, candidate Lee's approval rating among centrist voters decreased during the same period from 53.3% to 50.4% to 48.4%. The centrist approval rating announced in a recent Korea Gallup survey on the 23rd reflected the same trend. Candidate Lee (49%) saw a decline of 3 percentage points from the previous week, while candidate Kim (25%) increased by 5 percentage points.
The campaign's concept has reverted to a 'desperate election.' The campaign committee issued a 'dance ban' directive. This measure is aimed at preventing lawmakers from dancing at local campaign events and promoting it on social media (SNS). A campaign committee official remarked, "This is not a festival, and if it appears as though we've already won in these serious times, it would be a major problem," adding, "The message that we must run fiercely until the end to win must be conveyed."
◇ Enforcement of 'Lee's Amended Trial Exemption Law' and 'Presidential Trial Suspension Law'
In the political arena, there is widespread opinion that the ruling party has shaken the judiciary and increased the 'Lee Jae-myung phobia.' So far, the Democratic Party has been pursuing not only the Court Organization Act but also ▲ an amendment to the Public Official Elections Act to change the regulation on the public disclosure of false facts ▲ an amendment to the Criminal Procedure Act that suspends criminal trial procedures for presidential candidates ▲ an amendment to the Constitutional Court Act that effectively allows a 'four-instance system' by making court rulings subject to constitutional review ▲ and a special prosecution (Special Prosecutor) law for Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae.
Lee Jong-geun, a political commentator, stated, "Lee Jae-myung, who has dressed in dull colors and used a gentle tone to appeal to moderate conservatives, suddenly revealed arrogance by stating that 'the coffee cost 120 won' and 'thank you to China' were all good things," adding, "The cumulative pressure on the judiciary, such as the 'Lee Jae-myung exemption law' and the 'law for appointing non-lawyers as Supreme Court Justices,' seems to have influenced centrist voters recently."
Park Seong-min, a political consultant and representative of the firm, noted, "While it's unclear exactly how much impact it had, it certainly did not help his approval rating," adding, "The Democratic Party has clearly recognized that the pressure on the judiciary had a negative impact, which is why they announced at a recent press conference that they would retract the bills."
The poll referenced in the article was conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Energy Economy Newspaper with 1,509 voters aged 18 and older across the nation sampled three times during the relevant period (from the 14th to the 16th, 1,012 voters from the 20th to the 21st, and 1,009 voters from the 22nd to the 23rd), utilizing a wireless (100%) automated response method via a randomly generated sampling frame for phone calls. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level (±2.5 percentage points for the 14th to the 16th), and the response rates were 8.4%, 9.5%, and 8.3%, respectively.
The Korea Gallup poll was conducted from the 20th to the 22nd with 1,002 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, yielding a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The survey was carried out using phone interviews with randomly selected wireless number virtual samples. The response rate was 17.8%. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Survey Review Committee's website.