As the schedule to select two candidates for the People Power Party's third primary approaches, interest is growing over which of the four candidates—Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo—will emerge as the final two contenders.
The People Power Party will select two candidates to advance to the presidential primary on the 29th.
Unlike the first round, which reflected 100% of public opinion polls, in the second round, votes from party members will count for 50%, combined with 50% for the polls. If a candidate receives a majority of votes, they will be selected; if not, a final competition will be held between the top two candidates.
Recent poll results show that Kim Moon-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo are in a close race.
According to a poll conducted by Korea Research for KBS from the 22nd to the 24th of this month, targeting 3,000 people aged 18 and over, three candidates received 22% support from the People Power Party's backers and from undecided voters, applying the rules of the second round of primaries. Ahn's support is in the 6% range.
In a preference poll conducted by Realmeter for the Energy Economy Newspaper from the 23rd to the 25th, released on the 28th, Kim received 13.4%, while Hong Joon-pyo and Han Dong-hoon received 10.2% and 9.7%, respectively, confirming a close race within the margin of error. Ahn was recorded at 2.5%.
As a result, it is observed that the party's support will decisively influence the selection of the final two candidates. The consensus is that the possibility of confirming the final presidential candidate by a majority of votes is low.
In the People Power Party primaries for the last presidential election, Hong was ahead of public sentiment by 10 percentage points but lost the final candidate selection due to member support for then-candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, prompting Hong to quickly work to secure member support.
In a recent interview with ChosunBiz, Hong noted, "I focused on securing party support for three months after the impeachment. I met with many members and party committee chairs. In total, about 100 support me."
Kim is reportedly strong among traditional conservative supporters and middle-aged individuals (over 40). Notably, there are observations of a significant preference for Kim Moon-soo in conservative strongholds like Daegu and Gyeongbuk.
Han claims to have received overwhelming support of over 62% from both party support and public support during his election as party leader, asserting, "There is no difference between party support and public support."
According to the latest count by the party's election management committee, among 765,773 party members eligible to vote, 322,648 (42.13%) participated in the vote. This turnout does not lag behind the 63.89% recorded during the intense intra-party competition of the People Power Party in the 2021 presidential election amid the desire for regime change.
Voting by party members and public opinion polls will continue until the 28th. The final two candidates will be announced at 2 p.m. on the 29th.
On that day, candidates are expected to intensify their last pleas for support. Candidate Kim Moon-soo will announce an export promotion pledge, while Hong will visit the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Enterprises to hear from small business owners. Ahn and Han will travel to Chungcheong Province to meet with citizens and target the central region.