The People Power Party will determine the four candidates for the second presidential primary based on '100% public sentiment' around 7 p.m. on the 22nd.
Through this process, four candidates will advance to the second primary from a total of eight candidates, including Kim Moon-soo, Na Kyung-won, Ahn Cheol-soo, Yang Hyang-ja, Yoo Jeong-bok, Lee Cheol-woo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo (in alphabetical order).
With Kim Moon-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo forming a strong three-way structure early on, Na Kyung-won from the anti-impeachment faction and Ahn Cheol-soo from the pro-impeachment faction are fiercely competing for the last fourth spot.
The candidate selection method is a 100% public opinion poll. A total of 4,000 general citizens will be sampled, with 800 people surveyed by five polling agencies to aggregate the averages.
In a recent poll of all voters, Ahn Cheol-soo, who receives support from the center, is ahead, but when applying the anti-reverse selection clause that excludes support from other parties, Na Kyung-won shows an edge or is tied within the margin of error.
According to the results of a 'Readiness Survey for the Next Presidential Candidate of the People Power Party' conducted by Realmeter at the request of Energy Economy Newspaper from the 16th to the 18th, Kim Moon-soo and Han Dong-hoon ranked first and second with 18.6% and 14.9%, respectively, within the margin of error (±2.5 percentage points). Hong Joon-pyo followed with 12.4%, while Ahn Cheol-soo and Na Kyung-won were recorded at 9.6% and 6.4%, respectively.
However, when limited to the survey of support groups and the indifferent class following the People Power Party's primary regulations, Kim Moon-soo topped with 27.8%, while Han Dong-hoon recorded 19.8%, and Hong Joon-pyo recorded 17.9%. Na Kyung-won and Ahn Cheol-soo were surveyed at 10.2% and 7.7%, respectively.
In the survey targeting all voters, Ahn Cheol-soo led Na Kyung-won by 3.2 percentage points, while in the survey of support groups and the indifferent class, Na Kyung-won was 2.5 percentage points ahead of Ahn Cheol-soo. Both results are within the margin of error.
Among the supporters or undecided of the People Power Party, Na Kyung-won is expected to be evaluated as superior in terms of party foundations, recognition, and the ability to consolidate conservatives. However, there is also a cautious opinion that it is difficult to predict the results definitively since it is a close contest within the margin of error.
If Na Kyung-won advances to the top four, the primary structure will consist of one pro-impeachment candidate (Han Dong-hoon) against three anti-impeachment candidates (Kim Moon-soo, Na Kyung-won, and Hong Joon-pyo), resulting in an advantage for the anti-impeachment camp.
If Ahn Cheol-soo advances to the top four, the pro-impeachment scenario will consist of two candidates (Ahn Cheol-soo and Han Dong-hoon) against two anti-impeachment candidates (Kim Moon-soo and Hong Joon-pyo), resulting in a tight race.
The People Power Party will announce the results of the second primary on the 29th. If there is a majority voter among the top four, that candidate will be confirmed as the final presidential candidate. If not, the top two will be selected for another runoff.
For detailed information, you can refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Review Committee.