An index indicating the level of domestic political uncertainty remains high compared to before the 12.3 martial law situation. Although former President Yoon Suk-yeol was removed from office, political instability has not been resolved in the early presidential election phase. Economic downward factors such as domestic recession and U.S. tariff measures also played a role. Criticism has arisen in the political arena that Han Duck-soo, the acting president, rising as a presidential candidate increases uncertainty.
◇ Before martial law 0.4 → After 12.8… Unable to recover the previous level
According to materials received from the Bank of Korea by Lim Gwang-hyeon, a member of the Strategy and Finance Committee from the Democratic Party of Korea, the political uncertainty index was recorded at 2.5 (weekly moving average) as of the 13th. The index, which was at 0.4 in early December of last year, soared right after the emergency martial law declaration by former President Yoon and recorded an all-time high of 12.8 on the 14th of the same month.
The index rose to 12.4 on January 2, when the former president's side filed an objection to the execution of the arrest and search warrant. It showed some stabilization at 1.4 in late February; however, it rose again around the time of the impeachment ruling earlier this month. Although the impeachment process has concluded and the country entered the presidential election phase, political uncertainty remains high compared to before the martial law situation.
◇ "Han Duck-soo's presidential theories" emerge as a variable in the election
These figures were published amid discussions about the candidacy of the acting president, which has emerged as the biggest issue in the political sphere. The acting president, who is preparing for reciprocal tariff negotiations, has not clarified his position regarding the election. Instead, he continues his political activities with events like a 'tour of industrial sites' and delivering handwritten letters from '1,000 won cafeteria.' There are also remarks from within the Democratic Party as well as the People Power Party regarding 'building achievements for the election.'
Representative Lim Gwang-hyeon said, "As the acting president, it would be insufficient to focus on quickly stabilizing the impeachment government and managing national risks during the election period," adding that "in a position without authority, he is pushing for the appointment of constitutional judges, failing to attend the National Assembly's question and answer session with the government, and is engaging in activities that raise suspicions of election campaigning like 'tours of automobile factory production lines.'"
Lim stated, "The current actions of the acting president, who bears responsibility for the internal disorder during Yoon Suk-yeol's administration, are rather exacerbating economic uncertainty and acting as a bad factor magnifying external risks."
The internal strife within the People Power Party surrounding the acting president is also cited as a factor increasing uncertainty. Han Dong-hoon, a former representative participating in the primary, said on KBS radio that "who would accept the situation where the acting president awaits the primary victory without competition? No citizens would consider that fair." The preliminary candidate, Hong Joon-pyo, also remarked, "The acting president should manage the election neutrally," adding that "his candidacy itself is unreasonable."