Observations have emerged that due to the wildfire damage in Gyeongbuk, this year's apple harvest is expected to plummet, deepening concerns for price authorities. Following the deterioration of crop conditions due to abnormal climate in 2023, there is a possibility that 'appleflation' (the surge in apple prices) could reoccur until the first half of 2024. Given that the soil cleanup from the wildfire damage, replanting of saplings, and harvesting will take a long time, voices are calling for a ramp-up in discussions on imports to pass the 'apple hurdle' until apple production recovers.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and Gyeongbuk Province on the 10th, in the five cities and counties of Gyeongbuk where wildfires occurred, 3,701 hectares (㏊, 1 ㏊ = 10,000 ㎡) of orchards were affected by the fire. Regionally, Uisung had the most at 1,835 ㏊, followed by Andong at 1,095 ㏊, Cheongsong at 568 ㏊, Yeongdeok at 105 ㏊, and Yeongyang at 98 ㏊. These areas are representative apple-growing regions, and the area of orchards affected by the wildfires exceeds 10% of the national apple cultivation area (approximately 33,000 ㏊).
Even if there was no direct damage from the flames, considering the soot, smoke, and heat damage caused by the wildfires, the extent of the damage is likely to be larger. A representative from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs noted, "The damage scale thus far is a rough estimate based on visual inspection, termed 'Dal-kwan survey'. Only after accurately assessing the scale of the damage can we specifically estimate the impact on crop conditions."
The government states that the exact scale of the damage can only be assessed once the damage survey, scheduled to be completed by the 15th, is done. In this regard, Minister Song Mi-ryeong mentioned during her visit to an apple farm in Yesan, Chungcheongnam-do, on the 9th, "The damage area counted so far is the total area of orchard farms that have applied for disaster insurance, and there may be differences from the actual damage area. The precise scale of the damage will have to consider the flowering status of the apple trees in Gyeongbuk."
Recently, apple prices in wholesale markets have also surged. This is because concerns are growing about future supply, as approximately 2,000 tons of apples harvested last year, stored by apple farmers, were lost in the fire. According to the Agricultural Products Distribution Information (KAMIS), as of the 4th, the retail price of 10 Fuji (Busa) apple products was 28,186 won, an increase of 14.41% compared to the same period last year.
Price authorities are worried that the situation may replicate last year's first half, when fruit prices soared by as much as 40% compared to the previous year. In particular, from March to May last year, apple prices rose more than 80% compared to the same month the previous year.
Last autumn, the apple harvest recovered, stabilizing apple prices, but predicting this year's autumn harvest apple prices remains unpredictable. An industry official stated, "We need to look at the exact scale of the damage and production and shipping volumes, but it's almost certain that apple prices will rise compared to previous years," adding that competition among wholesalers to secure apples ahead of Chuseok will intensify, and consumer prices are also expected to increase.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, as well as price authorities, are exploring measures. In particular, while the 2023 yield decrease was attributed to abnormal climate causing low-temperature damage during the flowering period, this year's loss of crops is expected to take a long time to recover production levels, which adds to the burden.
It is known that it takes at least four years for apple saplings planted in orchards to produce normally. The Center for Apple Research at the National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science's Director Lee Dong-hyuk stated, "In the past, it took seven years for normal production after planting apple saplings, but recently, thanks to improvements in crop varieties, this period has been reduced to four years. Production volume recovers to half from the third year after planting, and by the fourth year, it reaches nearly normal levels."
Given the anticipated prolonged shortage of apple supply, concerns are increasing among price authorities. During the apple supply shortage period in 2024, the government attempted to divert apple demand by increasing imports of alternative fruits such as mangoes and bananas, but they failed to shift demand from apples. A price authority official conveyed the atmosphere at the time, stating, "Even with the expanded imports of alternative fruits, the demand for apples did not change significantly; it is not for nothing that they are called 'the people's fruit.'"
Given the circumstances, within price authorities, there is even a view that "if we want to control apple prices, we have no choice but to import apples."
However, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has expressed difficulty due to import quarantine issues. For foreign fruits to enter the country, procedures based on international agreements and domestic laws must be followed. The International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) and the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures of the World Trade Organization (WTO SPS) stipulate quarantine procedures based on scientific evidence. Under domestic law, the Plant Quarantine Act specifies the risk assessment and management plans for imports.
These procedures involve eight steps: receiving requests from exporting countries → commencing import risk analysis → preliminary risk assessment → individual pest and disease risk assessment → preparation of risk management plans → drafting of import tolerance standards → public announcement of import tolerance standards → notification and enforcement of import tolerance standards.
Despite expectations that the 'apple import quarantine procedures' will be expedited during the expected apple price surge in 2024, there has been no significant progress. The United States, which began discussions on apple imports in 1993, has remained at the third stage, while Japan has not made further advancements since entering the fifth stage in 2011.
Fortunately, Germany, which was at the third stage of preliminary risk assessment last year, has now advanced to the fourth stage of 'individual pest and disease risk assessment.' Steps 7 to 8 of the fruit import quarantine procedures are domestic administrative procedures, and completing up to the sixth stage can be seen as entering the import implementation stage.
Voices are growing that the quarantine procedures should be accelerated to align with domestic demand, but the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs maintains its existing stance that 'scientific verification is paramount.'
A representative from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs stated, "Regarding fruit import quarantine, experts are conducting import risk analysis procedures based on scientific evidence."
Instead of promoting imports, the government is primarily considering supporting apple farmers to improve productivity and expand domestic apple production. Specifically, it aims to support the reconstruction of apple farms lost in this fire while providing smart equipment such as multi-axis cultivation and heat fans and misting devices to prepare against abnormal climates.
The government plans to positively reflect the budget for farm reconstruction support in the supplementary budget set to be announced early next week. Minister Song Mi-ryeong stated, "I believe it is desirable to use smart equipment for disaster response and transform it into a future-oriented orchard," adding that they are preparing to aggressively include a budget for smart orchards in the supplementary budget.