On the 4th, the Constitutional Court cited the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, leading the political realm to transition into an early presidential election phase. Within the Democratic Party, attention is focused on the movements of the non-mainstream faction, amid overwhelming support for Representative Lee Jae-myung. In the People Power Party, where several potential candidates are competing, there is keen interest in which candidate can prevent a regime change. Analysts suggest that it is difficult to predict the political landscape confidently, as the undecided bloc still maintains around 20%.
◇ The given time is 60 days... The schedule for the 'presidential race'
The most likely presidential election date mentioned in political circles is June 3. According to the Public Official Election Act, a presidential election must be held within 60 days of the president's removal, and the acting president must announce the election date within 10 days of the ruling. The 19th presidential election, held after former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment, also took place 60 days after the Constitutional Court's ruling. In this case, each party must register their candidates with the Election Commission by May 11, which is 23 days before the election date. Official campaigning begins on May 12.
The ruling and opposition parties are expected to focus on differentiated strategies for winning the early presidential election amid the severe chaos of the current president's impeachment. Initially, figures such as Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, former party leader Han Dong-hoon, Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo are being mentioned as potential candidates from the People Power Party. There are forecasts that the number of participants in the primary could reach 10.
They must undergo a first preliminary screening (cut-off) and hold a main primary that reflects 50% of party member votes and 50% of public opinion polls. The public opinion poll will include both supporters of the People Power Party and the undecided voters.
The Democratic Party is likely to concentrate its efforts on the early presidential election under the slogan 'Elected President Lee Jae-myung' (어대명). Recently, Representative Lee was acquitted in the second trial concerning the Public Official Election Act, freeing him somewhat from judicial risks. Therefore, it is anticipated that he will focus on enhancing competitiveness for the main election and solidifying his status as the frontrunner.
However, there is discussion among the non-mainstream faction about the possibility of open primaries (complete public primaries), indicating that variables are present. The Democratic Party leadership is currently withholding comments. However, the political calculations among party contenders are complex, leading to significant differences within.
The fact that Representative Lee has absolute support from strong party members could create favorable conditions for open primaries. It is said that 'it is worth trying once.' Former lawmaker Jeon Hae-cheol, identified as a key figure in the pro-Moon faction, recently stated, "Although the intent may be good, there is a different issue of whether it can work in reality," affirming his public support.
The pro-Lee faction does not seem to strongly agree on the necessity of implementing it, given the solid power structure of Lee. In reality, the period for an early presidential election is short, and the 'unnecessary turmoil' that may arise during the rule negotiation process is internally burdensome.
Chief Spokesperson Cho Seung-rae of the Democratic Party said in a conversation with ChosunBiz, "While the intent may be good, whether it can actually operate in reality is another matter," adding that "holding a complete public primary with all opposition parties and civic societies mixed in is impossible under the current system."
◇ Reenactment of 'Lee vs. Yoon'?... "Political landscape change depends on ruling party candidate"
In political circles, it is believed that whether the political influence of former President Yoon will continue could be a variable determining the fragmentation or unification of the ruling party. Public sentiment typically holds the ruling party accountable for presidential failures, suggesting that the People Power Party candidate is at a disadvantage. This situation resembles the 2017 election, shortly after former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment, where the candidate from the Liberty Korea Party faced difficulties winning.
Many experts believe that former President Yoon's political influence will rapidly decline following his impeachment. While the pro-Park faction maintained a close relationship with President Park Geun-hye, the pro-Yoon faction is considered to have emerged based on the premise that former President Yoon is 'the living power.'
Shin Yul, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Myongji University, stated, "Once the string of power is cut, it's the end. There are talks that former President Yoon could engage in 'post-royalty politics,' but that's impossible." He continued, "Presidents during the democratization period, such as Kim Dae-jung or Roh Moo-hyun, or even former President Park, had a strong sense of solidarity with their support bases in the political arena, whereas former President Yoon's situation is different."
"Park Seong-min, head of Political Consulting Min, noted that 'former President Yoon's political destructive power will diminish' and added, 'Due to the pending insurrection trial, it is a burdensome situation for him to exert influence. The People Power Party has no choice but to accept the (Constitutional Court's) decision, so the 'Kim Moon-soo phenomenon' might diminish during the primary process."
However, there are also projections that the so-called 'Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Suk-yeol structure' could form again. If the People Power Party does not opt for a complete break from former President Yoon and chooses a final candidate from the pro-Yoon faction, such as Minister Kim Moon-soo or former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong, the previous election structure is likely to be repeated.
Lee Jun-seok, a member of the Reformist Party, appeared on a broadcast program and predicted, 'If we enter the early presidential election phase, former President Yoon will engage in 'private politics' at AcroVista.'
Political commentator Choi Soo-young stated, 'Under the premise of maintaining the current primary rules, there is a high likelihood that a pro-Yoon presidential candidate will emerge. This could be a factor making it difficult for the People Power Party to win the presidential election,' and added, 'If the People Power Party opts for a path of fragmentation to select a 'candidate that can win,' there may still be a possibility of success.'