The impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol has prompted the Democratic Party to fully enter 'election mode.' Amid the 'Uh-dae-myung' sentiment in the Democratic Party, no notable candidates have emerged from other opposition parties or the Non-Chin Myung faction. The Democratic Party is also struggling with the absence of a challenger to Representative Lee, raising concerns about the so-called 'primary election success.'
The Constitutional Court held a ruling session on the impeachment trial of former President Yoon at 11 a.m. on the 4th. The Constitutional Court ruled to dismiss Yoon by a vote of 8 to 0. Both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party will begin a formal election race for approximately 60 days leading up to the early presidential election date of June 3.
The Democratic Party is expected to soon begin the early presidential election process. Representative Lee is likely to resign from his position to run for president. Following the declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, Representative Lee has established organizations such as the ruling plan headquarters and the Q of everyone's question, as well as a livelihood economy consultation meeting, to prepare for the presidential election. Reports suggest he has begun behind-the-scenes work to recruit lawmakers and staff for the primary camp between late February and early March.
As Representative Lee has built a one-sided system within the Democratic Party, there is a high possibility that the Democratic Party will conduct the presidential election centered around him. Particularly decisive was Representative Lee's acquittal in the second trial of the election law violation case on the 26th of last month, temporarily alleviating judicial risks. According to a survey by Realmeter on the suitability of presidential candidates conducted from the 26th to 28th on 1,510 eligible voters aged 18 and over following Representative Lee's second trial, he recorded 49.5%. (For more details, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.)
◇ The 'Non-Chin Myung faction' has dampened enthusiasm following Lee's not guilty verdict in the election law case.
Presidential candidates from the Non-Chin Myung faction appear to be somewhat disheartened by Representative Lee's rise. Currently mentioned as potential candidates from the Democratic Party are Kim Dong-yeon, the Governor of Gyeonggi Province; former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum; former Gyeongnam Governor Kim Kyung-soo; former lawmaker Kim Du-kwan; and former lawmaker Park Yong-jin. Most are still in the deliberation stage, except for Kim Dong-yeon, who has a strong desire to run for president.
A Democratic Party official said, "With Representative Lee receiving a not guilty verdict in the second trial, the overall spirit of candidates from the Non-Chin Myung faction has waned," and added, "Unless some unexpected situation arises, I expect the atmosphere to remain centered around Representative Lee."
The 'open primary' proposed by the Non-Chin Myung faction and the Justice Innovation Party also seems unlikely to materialize. The open primary is a system that allows 100% participation from the general public, different from the current method which allows 50% participation from party members and 50% from the general public. The Democratic Party has stated it will conduct the primary in accordance with precedents set during the 19th presidential election, which was held after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.
A key figure in the Democratic Party leadership remarked, "There was also a suggestion for an open primary during former President Moon's time, but whether it can operate in reality is a separate issue," adding, "Basically, since it is meant to be a primary with public participation, it will certainly proceed within that framework."
◇ 'Uh-dae-myung' is not merely beneficial.
From the perspective of the Democratic Party, Representative Lee's unopposed leadership is not entirely welcome. This is because it does not contribute to the so-called 'primary election success.' The presidential candidate primary serves to preempt policy issues and showcase the party's vision for governance. If the 'Uh-dae-myung' sentiment continues, public interest in the primary may wane, and the party could lose its policy advantages.
The Democratic Party is reportedly considering allowing current lawmakers to participate as primary candidates in addition to candidates from the Non-Chin Myung faction. Specifically, it is said to have proposed participation in the primary to lawmakers Park Joo-min and Choo Mi-ae. Especially since Representative Lee implemented 'Non-Chin Myung's demise' in last year's election nominations and has recently proclaimed 'centrist conservatism,' the party is reportedly seeking progressive candidates who are not part of the Chin Myung faction.
A Democratic Party official from the Chin Myung faction noted, "Since Representative Lee has talked about centrist conservatism rather than the Non-Chin Myung or pro-Roh Moo-hyun structures, it would be good to have candidates who can healthy debate the party's line and policies," but added, "Participation in the primary is a matter of personal decision, which, for now, is not easy."
If Representative Lee enters the main election unopposed, the ruling party's offensive is expected to intensify. This is because it would be easier for the People Power Party, which claims impeachment was unjustified, to target Representative Lee and the one-sided Democratic Party system, given that the legal risks for Lee have not been resolved.
Lee Jun-han, a professor of political science and diplomacy at the University of Incheon, explained, "The Democratic Party has not allowed any challengers to emerge for several years, and with the not guilty verdict in Representative Lee's election law case, the likelihood of going with him as the leader is high," adding, "The People Power Party will likely think it is easy to target him as he has many flaws."