As the sentencing for the appeal trial regarding the violation of the Public Official Election Act by Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, approaches in three days (on the 26th), tensions are rising within the opposition. If an early presidential election is held, the outcome accepted by Lee, widely considered the most likely candidate for the next presidency, could change the dynamics of the presidential race.
According to political sources on the 23rd, if Lee is acquitted in the appeal trial, the current dominance system is expected to become even stronger. Although the Supreme Court (third trial) ruling is pending and other trials involving perjury and illegal remittances to North Korea are ongoing, it is expected that the 'Lee Jae-myung trend' will gain further strength within the opposition.
On the other hand, if Lee is found guilty in the appeal trial, damage is inevitable.
There are observations that the issue of 'candidate replacement' may arise within the opposition depending on public sentiment. If Lee receives a sentence equivalent to disqualification from candidacy in the appeal trial, he is expected to appeal to the Supreme Court, but he may not be free from criticism as a so-called 'flawed presidential candidate.'
Although it depends on Lee’s words and actions, if public sentiment perceives that he is 'holding on,' support from centrist voters may dissipate. Additionally, within the party, there could be critical voices emerging from the anti-Lee group.
The People Power Party is also expected to focus on 'attacking Lee Jae-myung' and launch a full-scale offensive based on this. On the 21st, marking his 100th day in office, Kweon Seong-dong, the floor leader of the People Power Party, released a book titled 'Lee Jae-myung's Fallacies' instead of holding a press conference. He raised his voice, stating, "The Lee Jae-myung faction is stepping on the dangerous pedal of reckless driving, pushing our Republic of Korea to the edge. We must stop it at all costs."
At the same time, pressure from potential ruling party presidential candidates is expected to intensify. An Cheol-soo, a member of the People Power Party, pointed out during a press conference that the impeachment motion against Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok serves no purpose other than to 'create a Lee Jae-myung presidency' and questioned, "Is it enough for Lee Jae-myung to simply become president, even if the country is in chaos?"
He also stated, "He is already a criminal with four convictions and is facing 12 criminal charges. Running for president while legal judgments are not yet concluded directly contradicts the fundamental spirit of democracy," and pressed him to withdraw from politics.
Meanwhile, Lee is focusing on the upcoming Constitutional Court ruling and is refraining from discussing the presidential election for the time being until the judgment is rendered.
On that day, reports emerged that Lee’s side is preparing a primary campaign camp in anticipation of an early presidential election, with the expected involvement of Park Soo-hyun and Han Byung-do, former senior officials from the Moon Jae-in administration. In response, Kwon Hyuk-gi, the party leader's chief of staff, stated through a media notice, "The party is currently focusing solely on the Constitutional Court ruling. No discussions regarding Lee's personal campaign are being conducted at all."