The government is considering expanding imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and participating in natural gas development projects in Alaska, drawing attention to the reactions of Middle Eastern countries. If South Korea shifts its import sources to the United States, countries like Qatar and Oman are inevitably expected to face reduced exports. Should these concerns materialize, there is speculation about possible disadvantages for South Korea, which is involved in industrial and infrastructure projects in the Middle East, including regulatory consequences.
According to ChosunBiz on the 6th, some Middle Eastern governments have recently inquired with South Korean sources about "trends in South Korea's LNG import policies." One official who received the inquiries said, "The inquiries were made informally" and noted, "As negotiations between South Korea and the United States become more concrete, the Middle East is expected to issue an official position." Furthermore, "The reactions of these countries will vary significantly depending on the scale and speed of South Korea's transition to U.S. LNG."
South Korea is the world's third-largest LNG importer, bringing in LNG from Australia, Qatar, Oman, Malaysia, and the United States. Notably, contracts with Qatar (4.92 million tons) and Oman (4.06 million tons), which accounted for 31% of the 20-year long-term contracts signed in the 1990s, ended at the end of last year. Since the beginning of this year, new contracts have been signed for 3.58 million tons. The government recognizes that the identified demand scale differs from that of 20 years ago, but based on a simple calculation, it appears there is additional import capacity of up to 5.4 million tons.
Replacing that volume with U.S.-sourced LNG is viewed as a "negotiation card" to exempt South Korea from U.S. tariffs and measures. Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Duk-geun said on the 4th, "The U.S. government tends to use trade balance deficit figures as indicators for tariffs and other measures, so I believe energy imports can be utilized as a card in response to this," adding, "We are considering plans to expand long-term contract volumes with industry and relevant ministries this year."
Participating in the "Alaska gas development project," which is a key initiative of U.S. President Donald Trump, is also considered a card to relieve trade pressure. On the 4th, President Trump officially mentioned South Korea as a participant in the Alaska project during a joint address to Congress. He leveraged mutual tariffs to pressure South Korea's involvement in the Alaska project. Minister Ahn stated, "We will specifically review participation in the Alaska project and organize our position."
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy is not actively monitoring the reactions of governments in Qatar, Oman, and other countries in this regard. With South Korea gradually diversifying its LNG import structure, the proportion of imports from the Middle East has already decreased significantly, leading to the assessment that they will not react overly sensitively.
Experts also predict that these countries are unlikely to express dissatisfaction through direct retaliation. However, they are concerned that South Korea may face disadvantages in non-energy sectors where it collaborates with the Middle East.
Kang Moon-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, stated, "If it creates a sense of crisis that South Korea's stance toward the Middle East has changed, it could lead to negative changes in the long-term strategies of Middle Eastern governments that are investing heavily in South Korea's petrochemical industry."
Moamen Gouda, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies' Graduate School of International and Area Studies (Middle East and African Studies), said, "Middle Eastern governments are expected to prioritize minimizing the impact of changes in South Korean policies rather than escalating routine tensions," adding, "Instead, subtle pressures may arise in the form of delays in approvals for infrastructure and industrial projects in the Gulf region that South Korean corporations are involved in and increased regulatory barriers."
He further advised, "South Korea must find a delicate balance between 'pressure from the Trump administration' and the 'need for energy partnerships with Middle Eastern LNG-exporting countries,' emphasizing the importance of clearly conveying external political factors like the U.S. to the Middle East while seeking to expand cooperation in technology, industrial investment, and defense."