The number of newborns rebounded last year, but the population decline continues. Over the past five years, the population has decreased by more than 450,000, making the "population cliff" a reality.
According to the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and population trends (provisional) on the 3rd, the population of South Korea decreased by 120,000 last year. The number of newborns was 238,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous year, but the number of deaths (358,000) still greatly surpassed this.
By region, only Sejong City saw the number of newborns exceed the number of deaths, resulting in a natural increase of 1,000. The other 16 regions all experienced natural declines.
The domestic population has been decreasing for five consecutive years since it first naturally declined in 2020. The natural decrease also increased from 33,000 in 2020 to 57,000 in 2021, and has maintained a level of 120,000 for three consecutive years since 2022. The population decreased by 456,000 over the past five years.
As of December 2023, the registered population of South Korea (51,217,000) shows that the scale of the population decline over the past five years is about 0.9% of the total.
Compared to the past, the trend of population decline is becoming more pronounced. From 1990 to 1994, the natural increase in population reached 2.33 million, but afterwards, the rate of increase steadily slowed. It dropped to 1.436 million from 2000 to 2004, and to 984,000 from 2010 to 2014. From 2015 to 2019, it decreased to 396,000, and after 2020, it turned to a decline.
The decline in the number of newborns is also evident. Over the past five years (2020 to 2024), a total of 1.25 million newborns have been recorded, marking the lowest level ever.
The number of newborns was 3.527 million from 1990 to 1994, but dropped to 2.669 million from 2000 to 2004. It maintained around 2.298 million from 2005 to 2009, and around 2.25 million from 2010 to 2014, but then saw a sharp drop to 1.832 million from 2015 to 2019, and down to 1.25 million from 2020 to 2024.
The number of marriages, which is fundamental to the birth rate, is also decreasing. Last year, the number of marriages was 222,000, the highest since 2019 (239,000), but the cumulative number of marriages over the past five years is 1.014 million, the lowest level in history. This reflects a decrease of 332,000 compared to the previous five years (2015 to 2019), which saw 1.346 million marriages.
Despite a temporary rebound in birth rates, there is a prevailing outlook that the long-term trend of population decline is likely to continue. Along with the rising proportion of the elderly population, the working-age population (ages 15 to 64) is decreasing, while the elderly population that needs support is increasing, raising concerns over the "demographic onus."
According to the Korean Statistical Information Service's future population projections, the domestic population is projected to decrease from 51.67 million in 2022 to 51.31 million by 2030, eventually shrinking to 36.22 million by 2072, which is similar to the level in 1977. The proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and older is expected to expand to 47.7% during the same period.
In a pessimistic scenario, the low estimate suggests that the population could decline to 30.17 million by 2072, which is similar to the 1967 level.
The National Assembly Budget Office recently analyzed that if the population low scenario materializes, the government debt ratio could rise to 181.9%, which is 9.0 percentage points higher than the median forecast of 173.0%.
The National Assembly Budget Office noted that if the rebound in birth rates in 2024 proves to be temporary and the low scenario is realized, there is a possibility that the burden of government debt could increase further, emphasizing the need for policy efforts to maintain at least a median population structure.