On the 13th, the won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,473.2 won. Based on the opening price, it exceeded 1,470 won for the first time in five transactions. This was influenced by the strong dollar following the U.S. employment data released on the 10th, which significantly surpassed market expectations.
According to the Seoul foreign exchange market, on this day, the won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,473.2 won, up 8.2 won from the previous trading day's weekly closing price (3:30 p.m.). It is the first time in five transactions that the starting exchange rate recorded the 1,470 won range since the 6th (1,470 won).
The exchange rate surged after the U.S. non-farm jobs report for December of last year, which was released on the 10th (local time), showed an increase of 256,000 jobs compared to the previous month. This significantly exceeded the market expectation of 155,000 jobs and contributed to a perception of a robust U.S. economy.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's Fedwatch, participants in the U.S. federal funds rate (ff) futures market see a 2.7% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower rates at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this month. The probability of a rate cut has decreased by 8 percentage points from 10.7% seven transactions ago on the 3rd.
According to Investing.com, the dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against six major currencies, recorded 109.70 as of 9:40 a.m. This is the highest level since early November 2022. The dollar-yen exchange rate is 157.9 yen, while the dollar-yuan exchange rate is around 7.36 yuan.
Wi Jae-hyun, an economist at NH Futures, said, "Today's won-dollar exchange rate is expected to rise to the mid-1,470 won range in line with the strong dollar trend," adding, "This week's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement is scheduled, but since it is not expected to significantly affect the forecast for interest rate freezes at this time, the strong dollar trend is likely to continue."