The third-quarter operating profit consensus for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has been revised back up to double digits after three months. Forecasts keep trending higher as artificial intelligence (AI) data center-driven memory demand exceeds expectations. Even within the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle, however, expectations for Samsung Electronics are rising on the back of its transition to sixth-generation HBM (HBM4), while some say SK hynix's No. 1 market share premium may weaken somewhat, creating a gap in sentiment between the two companies.
On the 15th, a review of major securities firms and overseas investment bank reports showed Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit estimate is tallied at around 114 trillion won. That is up 12.2836 trillion won (12%) from the estimate three months ago (101.9052 trillion won) and 28% higher than the record second quarter (89.4 trillion won). SK hynix's third-quarter operating profit estimate is also 78.8035 trillion won, up 4% from three months ago (75.7249 trillion won) and 30% higher than the second quarter (60.5426 trillion won).
◇ Memory supercycle continues… operating profit expectations rise again
According to market researcher TrendForce, contract prices for commodity DRAM in the third quarter are expected to rise 13%–18% from the previous quarter, and NAND flash 10%–15%. Compared with the first quarter (DRAM in the 90% range), however, the pace has slowed markedly. Prices have already reached record highs, and analysts say consumers in PC and smartphone markets have hit the limit of what they can bear.
TrendForce noted that a significant portion of new capacity is being prioritized for high value-added products such as HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise solid-state drives (SSD), making it difficult to resolve the shortage of commodity products for the time being. As the three memory makers pursue a strategy focused on improving product mix rather than expanding volume, it means prices, more than sales volume, continue to drive earnings.
Even in the same boom, the securities market sees the two companies differently. The securities market is focusing on the fact that Samsung Electronics' HBM4 share of sales has expanded from 5% in the first quarter to around 35% in the second quarter this year, while its Production yield is improving. SK hynix, by contrast, maintains its No. 1 competitiveness in the HBM market, but there is talk that Samsung Electronics' improved HBM4 mass production may dilute the top-share supplier premium it has enjoyed. LS Securities initially forecast SK hynix's HBM operating margin in 2027 at around 80% but recently cut that to around 60%. Still, the assessment is that this is more a narrowing of the gap than a reversal of the competitive landscape.
◇ Focus on Micron's earnings as exchange rates loom as a variable
The variable is the won-dollar exchange rate. Citi securities recently lowered SK hynix's third-quarter operating profit estimate to 74 trillion won from 76.7 trillion won, reflecting a stronger won. That is below the FnGuide consensus (78.7166 trillion won), and the annual operating profit forecast was also revised down to 254.2 trillion won from 261.1 trillion won. Unlike memory prices, which are set in dollars, Samsung Electronics' and SK hynix's income statements are converted into won, meaning exchange-rate direction can sway earnings expectations.
Industry watchers say Micron's earnings announcement will be a watershed that reconfirms the third-quarter outlook. Micron plans to announce results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 (June–August) on the 30th and has guided revenue of $49 billion–$51 billion. Whether it exceeds guidance is a barometer of the resilience of AI-driven memory demand and is significant as a leading indicator ahead of Samsung Electronics' and SK hynix's third-quarter earnings releases. However, because Micron's results are in dollars, some say that even if it beats guidance, the warmth may not fully carry over to Samsung Electronics' and SK hynix's won-denominated expectations due to the stronger won.
Some in the industry say attention should focus more on the quality of earnings than on a slowdown in earnings growth rate, while others say both base effects and exchange-rate variables should be considered. A domestic securities firm official said, "The slowdown in semiconductor earnings growth rate is a trend driven by base effects," but added, "In valuations, the most important indicators are not earnings growth rate but earnings stability and profitability, and semiconductors' return on equity (ROE) and operating margin will far exceed past cycles in 2026 and 2027."