Apple dropped the base model from the iPhone 18 lineup and put its first foldable, the "iPhone Duo," front and center. The company is shifting its premium smartphone launch strategy from the traditional "once a year." In the United States, the price gap between the iPhone Duo and the Galaxy Z Fold8 is only about $100 (about 130,000 won).
Apple limited the iPhone 18 Pro price increase to $100 over the previous model. As Apple, the No. 2 player in China's smartphone market, pushes into the premium foldable segment against Huawei and Xiaomi, Samsung Electronics faces an increasingly complex calculus to defend its global position.
◇ Passport-style smartphone "iPhone Duo," $100 difference from Galaxy Z Fold8
Samsung Electronics' Mobile eXperience (MX) and network businesses posted their first quarterly loss in the second quarter, with an operating loss of 700 billion won. In this situation, Apple's entry into the foldable market is expected to be a test for Roh Tae-Moon, head of the DX division and MX business at Samsung Electronics. As Apple targets the premium market on the strength of the iPhone ecosystem and brand power, Samsung faces the task of defending profitability.
What burdens Samsung Electronics first is that the price gap between the iPhone Duo and its own products is smaller than expected. Classified as a passport-style smartphone, the iPhone Duo's Korea prices are 3.29 million won for 256 gigabytes (GB), 3.59 million won for 512GB, 4.19 million won for 1TB, and 5.09 million won for 2TB. The Galaxy Z Fold8 is 2,278,100 won for 256GB, 2,531,100 won for 512GB, and 3,152,600 won for 1TB. Comparing base models, the iPhone Duo is 1,011,900 won more expensive than the Z Fold8.
However, the price gap narrows when looking at prices in the United States, Apple's home ground. Based on 256GB, the iPhone Duo is priced at $1,999, while the Galaxy Z Fold8 is $1,899.99, a difference of $100. That is why Samsung's "foldable premium" status looks precarious in North America.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research forecast Samsung Electronics' share of this year's foldable market at 32%, with Apple and Huawei taking 25% and 24%, respectively. But Counterpoint Research expects Apple's foldable share to expand to around 40% by 2027.
◇ Samsung Electronics faces a 'flagship gap' until February–March next year
It is unusual that Apple did not unveil the base and Pro models of the iPhone at the same time. The industry sees Apple's decision not to release the base iPhone 18 as a strategy to stagger smartphone launch timings. MarketWatch called it "Apple's new phased rollout strategy," noting, "In the fall, it plans to release the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Duo, and in the spring next year, the standard iPhone 18, Air, and 18e."
Component supply issues may also have influenced the launch strategy. With rising pressure on prices and supply of key parts such as memory, Apple chose to first produce and sell the more profitable Pro models and the foldable. By splitting the lineup into two waves instead of dropping all new iPhones once a year, the company can sustain the new-product effect longer, analysts say. Nabila Popal, an IDC researcher, said, "The shift in launch strategy can help Apple spread revenue more evenly throughout the year."
With Apple not releasing the base iPhone 18, if Samsung Electronics launches its mainstay Galaxy S27 in February–March next year, a flagship new-product gap will be unavoidable.
◇ Apple pushes into Huawei's home turf
Apple's entry into the foldable market is likely to be most disruptive in China. Globally, Samsung Electronics led the foldable market last year with about a 40% share (Counterpoint Research), but China is the opposite. In the second quarter, Huawei held a 68% share of China's foldable market (SmartAnalystics Global). Right before Apple's unveiling, Huawei introduced the Mate XT2, a tri-fold smartphone that folds twice, and Xiaomi revealed its top-end "Xiaomi 18 Fold," moves seen as efforts to check Apple.
Apple's expanding foothold in China also affects its standing in the global smartphone market. According to IDC, Samsung Electronics' share in China's smartphone market in the second quarter was just 0.1%. Apple was at 18.1%, second behind Huawei at 22.6%. If Apple captures share in China's foldable segment, a shake-up of the landscape is expected to some extent.
Counterpoint Research said Apple's first foldable iPhone will inevitably face limited supply during the early production ramp, setting the upper bound of this year's shipment forecast at 6 million units. Still, Liz Lee, associate director at Counterpoint Research, said, "Apple is expected to rank second in this year's foldable market, which shows the influence it can exert even before supply expands in earnest."