With expanded investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, an analysis found that memory semiconductors account for more than half of total semiconductor market revenue. The share of memory revenue, which used to be around 20% to 30%, has risen to 50% to 55%, and the sharp rise in DRAM and NAND flash prices is expected to continue for the time being.
On the 9th (local time), market-focused outlet MarketWatch said Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst at U.S. investment firm Susquehanna (SIG), projected in a client note the previous day that global semiconductor industry revenue this year will reach $1.5 trillion. That is about double last year's level, and he said memory was the "main driver" of the revenue increase.
Hosseini estimated, based on July global semiconductor shipments and average selling price (ASP) data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), that memory currently accounts for 50% to 55% of total semiconductor revenue. That is a significant increase compared with the usual 20% to 30% share for memory.
While memory demand has surged around AI data centers, supply has not kept up, pushing prices up quickly. Hosseini projected the average DRAM price will rise 50% in the third quarter of this year, followed by an additional 20% in the fourth quarter. He expected NAND flash to see an even larger increase. The average NAND price is forecast to climb 60% in the third quarter and another 25% in the fourth.
Hosseini said the overall semiconductor industry's price uptrend would have been "more moderate" if memory were excluded. In other words, memory supply shortages and price increases driven by AI demand are lifting not only memory makers but the entire semiconductor market's revenue growth this year.
With demand rising simultaneously for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators, server DRAM, and NAND for data storage, the high share of memory semiconductors in the overall market is expected to continue for the time being.