European allies are on edge as candidates skeptical of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have emerged as leading contenders in next year's French presidential election. There are concerns that if France, the European Union's only nuclear-armed state, distances itself from NATO, it could deliver a significant shock to Europe's security architecture.
According to major foreign media on the 29th (local time), recent polls indicate that Marine Le Pen of the National Union (RN) is expected to lead in the first round of the presidential election to be held in April next year.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Unbowed (LFI) is also seen as having a strong chance of overtaking them to reach the runoff in second place.
The issue is that both Le Pen and Mélenchon are critical of the current NATO framework. Politico Europe noted on the 19th, "Recent polling suggests roughly half of French voters support hard-line candidates opposed to NATO," adding, "NATO is preparing for the real possibility of a substantial hole in the alliance."
Le Pen argues that France should remain a NATO member but withdraw from the integrated military command. In an interview with French media in May, Le Pen said, "We must leave the integrated command," adding, "We should remain in NATO, but quitting the integrated command would not block the alliance's interoperability."
She added, "It is a reality that we are dependent on decisions made by Donald Trump, and this is regrettable."
Mélenchon has gone a step further, advocating France's withdrawal from NATO.
If France distances itself from NATO, the repercussions would be significant. France is the only country in the EU with nuclear weapons and informally cooperates with NATO on nuclear, satellite, and intelligence matters.
Finland defense minister Antti Häkkänen said in a recent interview, "I hope France understands the long-term benefits of a strong NATO, and that this requires France to be fully integrated into the NATO organization."
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament's Security and Defense Committee, also said, "France is not only a founding member of NATO but a key player," adding, "The only ones who would benefit from such a move are the 'enemies of freedom.'"
That said, with about eight months until the French election, it is too early to predict the outcome based solely on current polling. Even if Le Pen wins, there is a possibility she could soften her previously hard-line stance after taking power, as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni did.
According to an internal survey conducted by NATO in the spring, 54% in France said they wanted to remain in NATO, the second-lowest among the alliance's 32 member states after Montenegro.