As China's memory maker YMTC has thrown down the gauntlet to take the No. 1 spot in the NAND flash market next year, some worry that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which are expanding capacity focused on DRAM including high bandwidth memory (HBM), could lose the lead in the NAND market.
According to the industry on the 30th, market research firm Omdia forecast that YMTC's NAND wafer output will increase by 486,000 sheets, from 2,010,000 this year to 2,496,000 next year.
Wuhan Plant 3 will begin initial operations at year's end and start full-scale operations next year. Accordingly, the output of Wuhan Plant 3 alone is expected to surge from 90,000 sheets this year to 575,000 next year.
By contrast, the NAND output of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is not expected to change much through next year. Samsung Electronics' NAND wafer output is projected to increase by 75,000 sheets, from 4,770,000 this year to 4,845,000 next year. SK hynix (including Solidigm) is also expected to increase by 75,000 sheets over the same period, from 2,790,000 to 2,865,000.
YMTC is already rapidly increasing shipments and closing in on the leaders. In the second quarter of this year, it surpassed Japan's Kioxia for the first time in NAND shipments to rank third in the world. Because the share of high-priced data center eSSDs is low, it still remains fifth by revenue. However, the industry expects that YMTC can quickly expand its market share as profitability improves with rising NAND prices.
YMTC has reportedly set a goal during its recent initial public offering (IPO) preparations to capture the No. 1 position in the global NAND market as early as the end of next year.
It plans to raise large-scale funds through a listing expected as early as the fourth quarter of this year and expand capital expenditures. Starting with the year-end launch of Wuhan Plant 3, it aims to swiftly build additional plants and more than double production capacity.
By contrast, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are in a position where substantial expansion of NAND capacity would be possible no earlier than 2028. Samsung Electronics plans to produce NAND in parts of the clean rooms of P5 1 and 2 at the Pyeongtaek Campus now under construction. Operations are scheduled to ramp up sequentially from 2027 to 2030.
SK hynix also recently finalized the investment scale for building M17 in Cheongju, plans to break ground in February next year, and aims to open the first clean room in December 2028.
The industry also worries that capacity additions and share gains by Chinese companies, including YMTC, could spark supply competition and lead to a drop in NAND prices. Market research firm TrendForce analyzed the NAND market outlook, saying, "Unlike DRAM, the NAND market will see supply loosen and downward price pressure intensify from the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online and demand for consumer electronics remains weak."