The net decrease in Russian troops that invaded Ukraine is estimated to have reached 6,000 in the past month. Although Russia is recruiting more than 1,000 new troops a day, some analysts said the recent surge in casualties means it is failing to make up for its personnel losses.
The Guardian, a British daily, reported on the 28th (local time), citing Western officials, that Russia is newly recruiting more than 1,000 troops a day to send to the front.
However, the Guardian analyzed that casualties have surged over the past two months, reaching a level where even the newly recruited personnel are not enough to cover the losses.
A Western official told the Guardian, "The gap between Russia's current recruit intake and its casualty numbers is estimated to be 6,000 a month."
The official added, "Because of this situation, Russian President Vladimir Putin is intensifying attacks that target Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and civilians."
Recently, Russia has been systematically destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The Guardian said Russia is pursuing this strategy because the massive personnel losses are difficult to offset even with additional mobilization.
Western officials also believe that if Russia conducts another large-scale mobilization, the political and economic costs would be significant. In the fall of 2022, the first year of the war, when the mobilization order was issued, about 1 million people fled abroad, and more than half of them are estimated not to have returned. Because most were highly skilled workers, prolonged outflows would inevitably hurt the economy.
The Guardian noted that even if Russia mobilizes several hundred thousand more people, it would be difficult to train and deploy a large number of recruits to the front with only its current military equipment and officer corps.
For these reasons, Russia is also stepping up threats against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to weaken Western support for Ukraine.
It is attempting to carry out cyberattacks targeting NATO or strike civilian facilities to fracture alliance unity and reduce support for Ukraine.
A Western official said this was "to create a divided and vulnerable Europe," while another official said, "Russia has repeatedly raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons to scare us into halting support for Ukraine."
However, Western officials predicted that while Russia is ratcheting up threats, it will avoid a direct confrontation with NATO.