The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 25th, citing sources, that Anthropic is expected to present a total addressable market (TAM), meaning potential revenue opportunity, of more than $30 trillion (about 4,150 trillion won) in its prospectus for an initial public offering (IPO).
This exceeds the $28.5 trillion that Elon Musk's SpaceX presented in June. Of the TAM SpaceX presented at the time, $26.5 trillion was for the AI institutional sector. SpaceX classifies xAI, the AI model "Grok," and the social media X as its AI business.
TAM is an estimate of the annual revenue a corporation could theoretically achieve if it captured 100% of the relevant market. Because it is an indicator for gauging future market size, a degree of estimation is inevitable. For this reason, uncertainty is greater in the AI industry, where it is hard to predict growth speed and scope of use.
Wall Street reacted skeptically because the TAM SpaceX released at the time was extraordinarily large compared with prior cases. Even if you add up last year's sales of 191 technology corporations included in the S&P 1500 index, the total is only about $2.4 trillion.
Aswath Damodaran, a New York University finance professor known as a "valuation guru," told the WSJ that SpaceX's AI institutional sector TAM figure was "beyond the bounds of plausibility."
According to sources, Anthropic is currently reviewing all tasks that can be completed by an AI model to calculate its TAM.
Meanwhile, Anthropic is said to be aiming to raise up to $100 billion in this IPO offering. That exceeds SpaceX's $86 billion.
Anthropic is targeting a $2 trillion corporate valuation, which also surpasses SpaceX's $1.77 trillion based on the offering price.
Anthropic's IPO timing is expected as early as September or early Oct.