As the global smartphone market is set to shrink sharply this year due to a memory semiconductor supply crunch, Samsung Electronics is expected to reclaim the No. 1 spot in shipments, overtaking Apple.
On the 21st, market research firm Counterpoint Research projected that global smartphone shipments this year will fall 14.3% from a year earlier. With demand for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers surging, memory makers have concentrated their capacity on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM.
As supply of smartphone memory declines, manufacturing costs and retail prices are increasingly likely to rise in succession. Analysts said the impact will be particularly heavy on midrange and budget models, as well as on Chinese manufacturers that focus on those segments.
By contrast, Samsung Electronics' shipments are expected to rise 0.8%. Thanks to its in-house component production capacity, broad product lineup, and stable carrier and retail networks, the company is seen as relatively agile in responding to shortages. Huawei, which has built its own supply chain, was also cited as a company with growth potential.
If Samsung regains the annual shipment crown, it would recapture the lead it ceded to Apple last year after one year. In 2025, Apple led with a 20% share, ahead of Samsung Electronics (19%). In the first quarter of this year, the two companies were tied at 21%, locked in a close race. Over the same period, overall market shipments fell 3% due to memory shortages and softening demand.
Apple has the capacity to absorb higher costs, but its shipment growth is expected to be limited. Even if new AI features and foldables can enhance premium competitiveness, they are unlikely to drive a sharp increase in sales volumes. The global smartphone market is projected to continue declining through 2027 before recovering starting in 2028.