As investment in artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors expands alongside the construction of global advanced semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs), lead times for semiconductor equipment are lengthening. Unlike the temporary equipment shortages caused by supply chain collapses during the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts say this time it is a structural supply-demand imbalance, as expanded AI infrastructure investment is outpacing equipment production capacity.
On the 28th, the semiconductor industry said competition to secure equipment is intensifying across both front-end and back-end processes due to the expansion of AI Semiconductor investment. ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools are reportedly mostly booked for 2027 production, while front-end equipment makers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA have seen lead times for deposition, etch and metrology tools increase to about 1.5 to 2 times longer than before.
Korean semiconductor equipment makers are seeing a similar situation. Lead times for some core tools have stretched from the previous 3 to 4 months to around 6 to 8 months, prompting customers to place orders earlier, according to reports. For mass production of 12‑high HBM3E (5th‑generation HBM) and HBM4 (6th‑generation HBM), orders for TC bonders from major memory makers continue, keeping supply tight.
Equipment shortages are not limited to lithography tools. As investments in advanced processes and packaging facilities proceed simultaneously to expand production of AI accelerators and HBM, equipment demand is spreading across all process steps. With Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, TSMC and Micron pushing to expand capacity, equipment makers' order backlogs are rising quickly.
The most constrained equipment is EUV lithography. EUV is essential for advanced logic semiconductors and fine‑process DRAM, and ASML effectively has a monopoly on supply. ASML is expanding production capacity to respond to rising AI investment, but most of its 2027 output is already said to be booked. In its recent earnings release, the company said it will expand production capacity for EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools through 2027 and is considering additional expansion in 2028.
Still, ramping up EUV supply in the short term is not easy. EUV tools use ultra‑precise optics supplied by Germany's Zeiss, and even with efforts to expand optics output, the physical time required makes it difficult to quickly increase equipment supply. Industry watchers say these supply constraints could keep advanced process equipment shortages going through 2027 to 2028.
Bottlenecks are also clear in back‑end processes. As preparations for mass production of 12‑high HBM3E and HBM4 get into full swing, competition to secure TC bonders is intensifying. Korean equipment makers, including HANMI Semiconductor, are moving to expand capacity, but many say supply remains tight relative to the pace of AI memory investment. Global equipment makers also view the advanced packaging market as a future growth engine and are increasing related investment.
The key difference between the current equipment shortage and the pandemic era is the cause. From 2020 to 2022, logistics disruptions and parts shortages caused equipment shortfalls, whereas now, as competition to build AI data centers spreads worldwide, semiconductor corporations are structurally increasing capital spending. Major chipmakers are also moving up their order timelines in light of longer equipment lead times.
While supply chain disruptions triggered equipment shortages during the pandemic, now the expansion of AI Semiconductor investment is driving up equipment demand. The prevailing view is that equipment supply is not yet constraining production growth immediately, but if AI investment continues, longer equipment lead times could become a variable affecting chipmakers' investment schedules and capacity expansion plans.