As SK hynix is set to announce its second-quarter results on the 29th, projections are emerging that operating profit will come in around 64 trillion won, the largest ever. That would far surpass first-quarter operating profit of 3.76103 trillion won (operating margin 72%), with analysis suggesting that the three product lines—commodity DRAM, NAND flash, and high bandwidth memory (HBM)—each contributed evenly to profit improvement. Unlike the previous cycle when HBM alone drove profits, this quarter is being assessed as close to an "all-out supercycle," with prices for all memory categories rising at the same time.
◇ DRAM and NAND prices lead profit improvement
According to the industry on the 27th, a tally of consensus from 14 securities firms that issued second-quarter outlook reports for SK hynix in the past month estimates sales and operating profit at about 84 trillion won and 64 trillion won, respectively. Some see the operating margin approaching as high as 80%, from around 76%.
Securities houses cite price effects over shipment volume as the driver of solid second-quarter results. Kyobo Securities estimated that second-quarter DRAM shipments increased only 8% from the prior quarter, while average selling prices (ASP) rose 36%. IBK Securities likewise estimated the second-quarter DRAM ASP growth rate at 32%.
NAND, too, is estimated to have benefited from the expansion of global AI infrastructure. Increased demand for enterprise SSDs (eSSD) stemming from North American cloud service providers' (CSP) expanded AI data center investment has sharply pushed up NAND prices, it said. The securities community analyzed that NAND prices rose more than 45% in the second quarter alone.
Kim Dong-Won, head of research at KB証券, said of this trend, "As the production mix for HBM expands, the supply capacity for commodity memory will effectively remain limited," adding, "With a rising share of long-term agreements (LTA), the sales portion to big tech and AI data centers is expected to expand to 70%." The explanation is that DRAM production capacity tied up with HBM continues to act as a catalyst for price increases.
◇ Pace of transition to HBM4 will determine second-half results
For second-half results, the generational shift to HBM4 (sixth-generation HBM) is cited as the biggest variable. SK hynix in Feb. built a mass-production system for HBM4 and began shipments of 12-high HBM4 products for Nvidia's next-generation AI accelerator "Vera Rubin." In the second half, it plans to supply samples of the seventh-generation product HBM4E, which applies the 10-nanometer-class sixth-generation (1c) process, and begin full-scale mass production in 2027.
SK hynix's leadership in the HBM market is still considered solid. LS Securities said SK hynix began supplying 12-high HBM4E samples to major customers last month and achieved a per-pin data transfer rate of up to 16 Gbps. It added that the continued application of the advanced, mass-production-proven mass reflow molded underfill (MR-MUF) technology is also a strength.
Kyobo Securities also analyzed that SK hynix holds an overwhelming share in the HBM3E (fifth-generation HBM) market and is expected to secure a share of more than 60% in the HBM4 market. It further cited as a positive factor the growing portion of long-term agreements (LTA) that are not hit by price volatility, which has secured visibility for reduced earnings volatility and a prolonged cycle.
◇ Overseas IBs differ on the pace of upward revisions
Overseas IBs are also generally maintaining an upward tone on estimates. Goldman Sachs, after the first-quarter results announcement, raised its second-quarter DRAM price outlook to 50% from 40% and NAND to 45% from 30%. Citi Securities raised its 2026 annual operating profit forecast, citing a surge in memory demand for AI inference and an increase in tokenized data generated by AI agents. Nomura projected that the 2026 operating profit consensus would exceed 250 trillion won, citing a cycle led by corporate earnings and return on equity (ROE).
However, Morgan Stanley questioned the very pace of the estimate upgrades. Citing a slowdown in DRAM price increases, stabilization in inventory improvement, and a peak in upward revisions to earnings per share (EPS), it raised the possibility that memory chipmakers' earnings momentum may have peaked. According to TrendForce data, contract prices for commodity DRAM are expected to rise by the mid-10% range quarter over quarter, a clear slowdown compared with the 60% range increase in the previous quarter. Domestic securities firms, however, say it is premature to conclude a peak in results based solely on a slowdown in the rate of price increases, as earnings volatility is easing with the expansion of LTAs.