China's largest DRAM maker, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), is selling products at prices not far off from the levels of the global DRAM big three—Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron. In the past, the market was dominated by concerns that Chinese players would push for market share with a flood of low-priced supply after massive capacity expansions, but the spread of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly changed the memory market environment, making such projections inevitably subject to revision.
On the 6th, according to U.S. semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis, as of the first quarter this year, CXMT's average selling price (ASP) for DRAM was about 5%–10% lower than Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron. SemiAnalysis said the conventional belief that Chinese memory would drag down global DRAM prices through dumping is inaccurate compared with current market conditions.
The semiconductor industry sees this as a signal of structural change in the fundamentals of the memory sector. In the past, the memory market showed the classic boom-bust cycle of an industry where oversupply and steep price declines were followed by output cuts, in repetition. But since global big tech corporations began full-scale investment in AI data centers, analysts say the market's chronic supply-demand dynamics have shifted.
In particular, as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron—the DRAM big three—rapidly expand the share of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity server DRAM in their output, supply of commodity DRAM such as DDR4 and DDR5 is declining. Meanwhile, with rising AI server investment and recovering demand in downstream sectors like PCs and smartphones, even the commodity DRAM market is visibly moving toward shortage. In an environment where supply cannot keep up with demand, CXMT, a latecomer, has little incentive to trigger a price-cutting war.
CXMT is riding these market conditions to expand its presence intact. Recently, CXMT lifted its global DRAM market share to around 8%, cementing its position as the world's No. 4 player. While rapidly scaling capacity through aggressive line expansions, it is firmly refraining from bleeding-price competition, contrary to market expectations.
Industry watchers also cite limits to Chinese firms' cost competitiveness as a key reason dumping has faded. SemiAnalysis estimated CXMT's per-bit manufacturing cost for DDR5 is more than 30% higher than that of the leaders. With manufacturing costs not yet sufficiently low, an excessive price-cutting race could critically damage profitability, so the company has opted for a pragmatic strategy to maximize profit.
In fact, CXMT is posting steep growth on the back of the AI memory supercycle. According to SemiAnalysis estimates, CXMT's revenue last year was about $8.6 billion (about 13.15 trillion won), up 156% from the previous year. CXMT is currently seeking a listing on Shanghai's STAR Market, and investors expect the initial public offering (IPO) to be among the largest in China's semiconductor history.
The strengthened pricing power of memory makers is also evident in transactions with major global set (finished goods) customers. Industry observers say that, unlike in the past, PC, smartphone, and server makers now find it difficult to hold absolute sway in memory price negotiations. With structural shortages driven by AI continuing, memory suppliers' pricing power is higher than ever.
However, in HBM, the high-value segment drawing the market's focus, Korean corporations are still seen as maintaining overwhelming technological superiority. According to SemiAnalysis, most of CXMT's revenue comes from commodity DRAM such as DDR and LPDDR, while its HBM output share remains limited.
A semiconductor industry official said, "The rapid capacity expansion by Chinese companies will be a variable for the global memory market in the mid to long term, but for at least the next few years, shortages driven by an explosion in AI demand are more likely to exert a dominant influence on the market," adding, "Rather than the past 'chicken game' centered on lower-tier products, high-value memory competition focused on HBM and next-generation server DRAM will become the market's main axis."