Apple's first foldable iPhone is emerging as a driver of growth in this year's smartphone panel market. Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicted that demand for foldable panels will recover in the second half, when new product launches by Apple and Samsung Electronics ramp up.
Counterpoint Research said on the 6th in its "Quarterly Foldable Display Shipment and Technology Report" that global foldable smartphone panel shipments this year are expected to reach about 27.5 million units. That is up about 24% from a year earlier. Over the same period, revenue is forecast to rise 48% year over year to about $4.4 billion (about 6.736 trillion won).
Counterpoint Research cited Apple's market entry and the expansion of premium in-fold products as reasons why the revenue growth rate will outpace shipments. It said not only a recovery in volume but also higher average selling prices and a better product mix will drive market growth.
Counterpoint Research viewed Apple as the most important variable in the 2026 foldable panel market. Apple is expected to begin full-scale procurement of panels for its first foldable iPhone in the second half. As a result, the importance of Samsung Display, premium in-fold panels, and high value-added technologies is expected to rise. It also said the magnitude of the market rebound will depend on Samsung Electronics' foldable product launches, Apple's expanded panel procurement, and the pace at which Chinese smartphone makers roll out follow-up models. Accordingly, it projected that second-half shipments will account for about 64% of the annual total.
Samsung Electronics is expected to retain the No. 1 spot this year in terms of foldable smartphone panel procurement. Counterpoint Research projected that Samsung Electronics will account for about 31%, Apple about 29%, and Huawei about 24%.
Counterpoint Research said Apple will likely expand the market itself in the first year rather than immediately replacing Samsung Electronics and Huawei. It said the rising share of high-priced models, improved durability, reduced screen creasing, and the spread of wide book-style foldables could significantly reshape the competitive landscape.
However, the market in the first quarter showed a transitional trend ahead of a full rebound. First-quarter global foldable smartphone panel shipments were about 3.9 million units, down 7% from a year earlier. Counterpoint Research explained that smartphone makers' inventory adjustments and fewer new product launches had an effect. BOE maintained the lead with about a 45% share in the first quarter on the back of Huawei demand. However, that was down 7 percentage points from 52% a year earlier, and shipments fell 19%.
Samsung Display raised its share over the same period from 15% to 22%. Shipments rose 37% from a year earlier. Counterpoint Research assessed that Samsung Display showed growth by securing volumes not only from Samsung Electronics but also from Chinese smartphone makers such as OPPO and vivo.
Visionox and TCL CSOT each posted market shares of about 16% and 13%. The two companies' shipments fell 21% and 15%, respectively, from a year earlier. Tianma increased its share to about 4% due to a low base effect.
Counterpoint Research said it is difficult to judge the annual competitive landscape based only on first-quarter shares. That is because foldable panel shipments are heavily affected by each brand's new product launch schedule and the timing of panel orders. A Counterpoint Research representative said, "In the second half, when Apple and Samsung projects ramp up, Samsung Display's market position could strengthen further."
In product formats, in-fold is emerging as the mainstream form factor. In-fold refers to a design in which the screen folds inward. Counterpoint Research said that until 2025 the shares of in-fold and clamshell were roughly similar, but this year the market flow is shifting toward wide book-style foldables as the clamshell share declines.
Anz Chi, research director at Counterpoint Research, said, "In-fold is moving from an auxiliary form factor to the mainstream," and "growth is being driven not only by Apple but also by productivity use, large-screen experiences, and higher profitability."
Tri-fold products are likely to remain symbolic models that showcase technological prowess. Counterpoint Research said that Huawei's Mate XT series and Samsung Electronics' Galaxy Z Tri-Fold strategies showed commercial potential, but the complexity of multi-hinge structures, low Production yield, and increased weight are factors that limit mass adoption.
Counterpoint Research assessed that the first-quarter decline is not indicative of a structural slowdown in the foldable market. It sees it as a temporary trough during a product cycle transition. This year, after adjustments in the first half, the foldable panel market is expected to enter a phase in the second half where the effects of new products from Apple and Samsung Electronics can be confirmed.