The "price ceiling" in the premium smartphone market is wobbling. For years, Apple's iPhone has effectively set the benchmark price in the high-end smartphone segment. When iPhone prices were held in place, Samsung Electronics also found it difficult to raise Galaxy prices significantly. From a consumer standpoint, that could fuel the perception that "the iPhone stayed the same, but only the Galaxy got more expensive."
But the mood is shifting after Tim Cook, Apple's chief executive officer (CEO), noted in an interview with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that product prices could rise due to a surge in memory chip costs. If Apple raises iPhone prices, there is speculation that Samsung Electronics' Mobile eXperience (MX) division could gain room to adjust prices to defend profitability. That is drawing attention to the launch price of the Galaxy Z Fold 8, which Samsung Electronics plans to unveil in early August.
◇ The iPhone is pushing up the price baseline for premium phones
On the 22nd, market research firm TechInsights analyzed that for Apple to maintain revenue, it would need to raise the price of the next iPhone Pro model by about $270, or about 400,000 won. While that does not mean the actual increase is set, it shows that higher memory prices and the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) features are adding cost pressures that translate into upward pressure on premium smartphone prices.
In Korea, the launch price of the iPhone 17 Pro 256-gigabyte (GB) model is 1.79 million won. If that level of increase is reflected, the domestic launch price of the iPhone 18 Pro could easily surpass 2 million won. The WSJ also said that applying TechInsights' analysis, the iPhone 18 Pro price could rise to around $1,299 (about 2 million won).
This point matters to Samsung Electronics. Although Samsung Electronics raised prices on some key smartphones this year, it is hard to say the increases fully reflected higher costs. For the Galaxy S26 256GB models (standard, Plus, Ultra) released in March, prices rose about 99,000 won from the previous generation, and the 512GB models were up 209,000 won. In April, it also slightly raised prices on the Flip and Fold models launched last July. The Galaxy Z Flip 7 512GB model increased by 94,600 won, from 1,643,400 won to 1,738,000 won, and the Galaxy Z Fold 7 512GB model also rose 94,600 won, from 2,537,700 won to 2,632,300 won.
Prices went up, but many say the increases were limited. That is because prices of key components such as memory, storage, and mobile application processors (APs) are rising rapidly. "In the smartphone business, the difference between the product's selling price and component costs, marketing expenses, and distribution costs flows into operating profit," a source in the electronics industry said. "If the launch price increase is around 100,000 won while key component prices are surging, it's not easy to defend margins." In the first quarter, the combined operating profit of Samsung Electronics' MX and Networks businesses was 2.8 trillion won, down 35% from the same period a year earlier (4.3 trillion won).
Apple is one reason Samsung Electronics has been cautious about raising prices. Foldables, in particular, have higher launch prices than bar-type smartphones, so if the price gap with the iPhone widens too much, the burden on buyers naturally stands out more. That is also why, even as it raised prices in April, Samsung Electronics kept the 256GB models of the Z Flip 7 (1,485,000 won) and Z Fold 7 (2,379,300 won) unchanged.
However, if the iPhone 18 Pro price rises, Samsung Electronics' calculus could change. In the past, it was a scenario where only the Galaxy's price went up; going forward, the entire premium smartphone market may be seen shifting to a higher price tier.
◇ Foldables carry heavy cost burdens… higher-capacity models may see price adjustments first
The Galaxy Z Fold line is considered one of the most cost-burdened products in Samsung Electronics' smartphone lineup. It packs a foldable display and hinge, a high-performance AP, and large-capacity memory and storage. With On-device AI features strengthening, it is also difficult to dial back specifications for the next model. To run AI features smoothly, you need more computing power and more memory. As DRAM and NAND flash prices surge amid expanded AI server investments, pressure to raise the Galaxy Z Fold 8's price will inevitably grow.
If Samsung Electronics prices the Galaxy Z Fold 8 more aggressively than before, it will help the MX division defend profitability. Assuming shipments do not swing sharply, a higher average selling price (ASP) can translate into improved revenue and operating margin. The industry also expects Samsung Electronics to defend the base model's price as much as possible while adjusting launch prices mainly for higher-capacity models such as 512GB and 1TB. That is because higher-capacity models can more easily reflect component cost increases, and buyers of those models tend to be less price-sensitive.
Price hikes have also become important for Samsung Electronics' MX division from a results-defense standpoint. The smartphone market is already mature, and it is hard to sharply increase unit sales. Ultimately, it is important to raise the share of premium models and protect the profitability of high-end products. Fold-type foldables are a flagship lineup where Samsung Electronics can differentiate from Apple, and they are also almost the only smartphone category where a high launch price can be justified. In last year's Korean preorders for the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Flip 7, the Fold 7 accounted for 60% and the Flip 7 for 40%. Recently, Counterpoint Research projected that the global share of book-type (fold-type) foldables will rise from 52% in 2025 to about 65% in 2026. Because Samsung Electronics' fold-type foldables are priced much higher than flip-types, raising fold-type prices can directly feed into sales growth.
Still, price hikes are a double-edged sword. Raising the Galaxy Z Fold 8's price can improve per-unit profitability, but if sales volume falls, the overall boost to operating profit is diluted. It can also weigh on the strategy to popularize foldables. Samsung Electronics pioneered the foldable market, but Chinese smartphone makers are rapidly catching up.
◇ The "Fold 8" arrives before Apple… Samsung's dilemma deepens
Timing is key. The Galaxy Z Fold 8 is expected in early August, and the iPhone 18 in September. Samsung Electronics must set the Galaxy Z Fold 8's price before it can confirm Apple's actual launch price. A large increase would help defend profitability, but if the iPhone 18's price rise is smaller than expected, consumer resistance could grow.
"Because the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is launching about a month earlier than the iPhone 18, Samsung Electronics has to decide its price without knowing Apple's actual launch price," a source in the electronics industry said. "That said, the outlook for an iPhone price increase alone will serve as a catalyst within Samsung Electronics' decision-making process to raise Galaxy prices further."
In the end, an iPhone price hike is not just a simple strategic shift by a competitor for Samsung Electronics. It is a factor that resets the price baseline in the premium smartphone market. If the iPhone pushes up the price ceiling, Samsung Electronics gains room to raise the Galaxy Z Fold 8's price. But because Samsung Electronics also needs to expand the foldable market, it must find a precise balance between profitability and sales volume.