SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk in 2002, will list on the Nasdaq in the United States on the 12th (local time). SpaceX posted revenue of $18.7 billion (about 28 trillion won) and a net loss of $4.9 billion (7.4 trillion won) last year. Yet the market assigned the company a price tag close to 95 times its revenue. Based on the IPO price, SpaceX's corporate value amounts to $1.77 trillion (about 2,700 trillion won). Why did the market assign such a high valuation to SpaceX?
SpaceX outlined three business institutional sectors—space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI)—in its securities registration statement (S-1) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The connectivity institutional sector operating Starlink generated the most revenue last year, accounting for 61% ($11.4 billion) of total revenue. But the future the company presented to investors is different. Having started as a space launch company, SpaceX has put space-based AI infrastructure at the forefront as its future growth engine. The AI institutional sector currently accounts for only 17% of total revenue.
◇ 170 launches last year… Starlink subscribers increasing by 1 million a month
SpaceX's space business effectively leads the launch services market with its reusable rockets Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. The number of launches has increased about sixfold since 2020, reaching 170 last year, and reusability has cut the cost of reaching orbit by about 85% compared with past averages. The company said its share of global orbital payload transport last year neared 90%. Launches of the next-generation Starship rocket and launch services for government agencies are also included in this institutional sector. However, the space business revenue growth rate was about 8% last year. Considering that SpaceX's corporate value grew fivefold since the end of 2024 ($350 billion), this is a relatively moderate figure.
What currently supports SpaceX's results is the connectivity business institutional sector. Starlink now provides satellite broadband service in 164 countries. As of the 5th of this month, the number of Starlink subscribers exceeded 12 million. Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers at the end of the first quarter. The subscriber base is growing by about 1 million a month. In May, with approval for the acquisition of EchoStar spectrum to secure satellite frequencies, SpaceX can also offer a "direct-to-device" service that receives 2GHz-based satellite communications directly on mobile phones. The company said it plans to begin full-scale launches of second-generation satellites starting next year based on this.
Airlines are increasingly adopting Starlink. Among the airlines that have signed contracts, only about 5% of aircraft have actually installed Starlink, leaving ample room for expansion. SpaceX expects it can win Delta Air Lines—the only one among the four major U.S. carriers that has not signed—as a customer as well.
The AI institutional sector centers on leasing idle computing resources, AI model training, and on-orbit computing. A representative example in the idle computing leasing business is Anthropic's recent agreement to pay SpaceX about $45 billion (about 61.2 trillion won) over the next three years for computing resources. With AI company xAI and the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) added to the AI business portfolio this year, SpaceX is accelerating its transformation from a space launch company into an AI infrastructure company. SpaceX also unveiled a long-term blueprint to build AI data centers in space.
◇ Shift in weight to AI… "a corporate value 95 times revenue"
Judging by SpaceX's current results alone, a corporate value 95 times revenue is hard to accept, but Wall Street is valuing SpaceX for its future growth potential, not its present. The market sees the AI business, rather than future space launches, as the key driver that will determine SpaceX's value.
Investing in SpaceX is effectively a bet on the future vision presented by Elon Musk rather than on current results. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley projected that SpaceX's revenue will reach about $160 billion (245 trillion won) in 2028. For 2030 revenue, Goldman Sachs forecast $470 billion (720 trillion won), while Morgan Stanley projected $330 billion (506 trillion won). Morgan Stanley went further, saying SpaceX's 2040 revenue could reach $3.4 trillion (5,212 trillion won).
Analysts say the basis for the lofty valuation also lies in a growth scenario centered on AI. SpaceX posted an operating loss of $1.9 billion (2.7 trillion won) in the first quarter, mainly due to a $2.4 billion (3.6645 trillion won) loss in the AI institutional sector. SpaceX projected about $3.2 billion in revenue from AI this year, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expected the AI business institutional sector to account for most of revenue and grow rapidly after this year. Goldman Sachs projected AI institutional sector revenue of $322 billion (493 trillion won) in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected $190 billion (291 trillion won).
The company's total addressable market (TAM) outlook is also AI-centric. SpaceX estimated the space market at $370 billion (567 trillion won) and the connectivity market at $1.6 trillion (2,452 trillion won), while projecting the AI market at a staggering $26.5 trillion (4 quintillion 621 trillion won). AI infrastructure, consumer subscription services, digital advertising, and enterprise applications are included.
◇ "Not confident in the scientific and economic feasibility of space data centers"
Still, there are many concerns about SpaceX's lofty corporate value. Morningstar estimated SpaceX's corporate value at $780 billion (1,195 trillion won). Nicholas Owens, a Morningstar analyst, said, "The probability of success for space data centers is only 7%," and noted, "While the path for the merged AI to secure a sustained competitive edge is to leverage space-based infrastructure, we cannot be confident in the scientific and economic feasibility of such plans."
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren urged SpaceX to delay its initial public offering in an open letter. In the 12-page letter, Warren pointed to the possibility of inaccurate or misleading accounting or valuation during SpaceX's acquisition of xAI (a privately held company) owned by Elon Musk, conflicts of interest stemming from Musk's unchecked power as a major shareholder, and the risk that including SpaceX in major stock indexes could pose significant dangers to investors.