China's largest DRAM maker CXMT raised about 29.5 billion yuan (6.7 trillion won) through a listing on Shanghai's STAR Market, bringing the possibility of a shift in the global memory chip industry to the forefront.
The combined DRAM market share of Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron still tops 90%, but some say CXMT's growth pace and the capital secured via its initial public offering (IPO) could upend the current landscape over the mid to long term. Experts agree that the immediate impact on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will be limited, but as CXMT grows larger, it will become a variable that cannot be ignored.
◇ Reversal powered by a supercycle, cumulative losses erased at once
According to market researcher Omdia on the 11th, CXMT's global DRAM market share jumped from 3.97% in the second quarter of last year to 7.67% in the fourth quarter, nearly doubling in just two quarters. First-quarter revenue this year surged 719% year over year to 50.8 billion yuan (7.5 trillion won), and net profit rose 1,688% in the same period. In effect, the company wiped out 36.6 billion yuan in cumulative losses since its founding in a single quarter. Douglas Research said, "CXMT has grown into a serious competitor in the global DRAM market." The IPO is the second largest since the STAR Market opened in 2019 and ranks among the biggest listings after SMIC raised 53.2 billion yuan in 2020.
CXMT's rapid rise also benefited from structural luck. As Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shifted more than 70% of their DRAM capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a supply gap emerged for commodity DRAM, while AI servers required eight to 10 times the memory of general servers, widening the gap between supply and demand. CXMT moved squarely into that vacancy. According to TrendForce, DRAM contract prices soared more than 75% year over year in the fourth quarter of last year and up to 98% in the first quarter of this year. Gartner projects a 125% rise in DRAM prices for the full year. The issue is that the firepower secured through this IPO will not be limited to benefiting from the current cycle. About $1.8 billion of the proceeds will go to advancing DRAM technology, and $1.26 billion will be invested in advanced process research and development.
CXMT's capacity is now 290,000 wafers per month and is slated to reach 300,000 within the year and more than 400,000 thereafter, and if this roadmap is realized, some project that its global DRAM share could rise from about 11% last year to 13.9% in 2027. In a recent report, Jefferies noted that China's semiconductor exports in January–April this year jumped 84% year over year, and assessed that CXMT and YMTC are establishing themselves as major competitors in the global memory market amid the AI boom.
◇ Throwing down the gauntlet in the HBM market, too… the gap with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remains
Whether CXMT will enter the HBM market, effectively dominated by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, is also drawing attention. The industry says CXMT has narrowed the gap with Korean corporations to about three years in terms of HBM3 (fourth-generation HBM) manufacturing technology. However, Production yield is still cited as a constraint, and some note that technical feasibility and commercial mass production are separate issues. In fact, CXMT's HBM3 mass-production target has been postponed multiple times, and the company is reportedly struggling to secure stable operating speeds due to heat issues. The initial mass-production target was the first half of this year, but it is said to remain in the testing phase to date. Even so, if CXMT succeeds in supplying HBM3 at scale, it could crack the existing oligopoly in memory, which has maintained high margins for years on the back of limited supply.
Still, the prevailing view is that it will take considerable time to join the same league as the big three in Production yield and process performance due to restricted access to ASML equipment. Another weakness is that the memory industry's characteristic downcycles work against latecomers with weaker capital. In a recent report, Daishin Securities warned against excessive optimism, saying, "CXMT's 2026 production target (40 billion Gb) is a level it has not achieved even once in the past three years."
Experts say CXMT must meet four conditions simultaneously to secure a place among the big four in DRAM: sustained capital投入, a leap in advanced process Production yield, evading geopolitical sanctions, and securing overseas customers. They see a risk that failure on any one of these fronts could leave the company as a supplier for the Chinese domestic market only. A semiconductor industry official said, "The core question for the memory market is not whether CXMT can sustain its growth, but whether existing players can defend pricing power in the commodity DRAM institutional sector while simultaneously investing in next-generation premium memory."