Krafton's new game "Subnautica 2" is sustaining strong early sales. As expectations grow that it could become Krafton's next-generation intellectual property (IP) following PUBG, analysts say additional updates, including more content, will be crucial to turn the early momentum into long-term performance.
According to the industry on the 18th, Subnautica 2, which launched in early access on the 15th, sold a cumulative 2 million copies in about 12 hours. Peak concurrent users across all platforms reached 651,000, and 467,000 users were concurrently connected on Steam alone. That is about nine times the all-time peak concurrent users of 51,000 for the 2018 predecessor, Subnautica.
User reception is also positive. As of 2 p.m. on the 18th, 91% of about 58,000 reviews on Steam were positive. That is encouraging compared with Pearl Abyss' Crimson Desert, which sold 5 million copies in 26 days but had a positive rating in the 60% range on launch day. The game also continues to perform well, ranking No. 2 among top-selling games on Steam (by revenue) and No. 5 among most-played games (by daily players).
This success means more than just a hit new release for Krafton. It raises the likelihood that its strategy to reduce reliance on the PUBG IP and secure a new major IP will bear fruit. In recent years, Krafton has worked to diversify its revenue structure by releasing various new titles, including Enjoy. Enjoy drew attention by surpassing 1 million global sales in its first week, but users left quickly and it is viewed as having fallen short of long-term success.
For this reason, Subnautica 2 from Unknown Worlds Entertainment, which Krafton acquired in 2021 for about $500 million (about 750 billion won), has long been seen as a key title to gauge investment returns and the company's future.
Now the market is focused on how many copies Subnautica 2 can sell beyond its opening surge. Kim Jin-gu, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, estimated in a report released earlier this month that Subnautica 2 would reach a cumulative 5 million sales during the second quarter this year.
Whether that outlook materializes remains uncertain. The game's immediate post-launch pace exceeded expectations, but there are several variables. First, user metrics have slowed. Subnautica 2 has yet to surpass the peak concurrent users it recorded on day one. That differs from Crimson Desert, which started with underwhelming reviews but set a new peak concurrent record about 10 days after launch through steady updates and word-of-mouth.
In particular, because it is early access, complaints are concentrated on a lack of content. Among domestic users—who tend to be stricter than overseas users—the positive review ratio on Steam is about 73%. While graphics and other aspects have been praised, many say the map is smaller than expected and the amount of content is lacking, with reactions such as "even considering early access, it is effectively at a demo level."
Analysts say long-term success will depend on securing additional content and the pace of updates. A gaming industry official said, "In today's game market, it is becoming more important to reflect user opinions quickly than to achieve perfect completeness at launch," adding, "Based on user feedback, continuously expanding the content and pushing updates swiftly will be the key to long-term success."
A Krafton official said, "During the early access period, additional biomes, creatures, crafting elements, and narrative will be expanded sequentially," adding, "We plan to focus on improving the game's core elements and raising its level of polish."