As the possibility grows that Apple and Intel will join hands again, Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML is emerging as the biggest beneficiary. If Apple diversifies some chip production from a TSMC-centered model to Intel Foundry, Intel will have little choice but to launch massive equipment investments to secure advanced capacity. The two grew distant after ending their Mac processor collaboration in the past, but Apple's recent strategy to spread geopolitical risk and Intel's determination to rebuild its foundry are aligning, forming what looks like a new honeymoon.
According to a Bank of America (BoA) report on the 13th, Intel may place additional orders for ASML equipment worth up to 4.6 billion euros (about 7.2 trillion won) to handle Apple volumes. The base case is about 1.8 billion euros, but if the scope extends to chips for iPhones, the equipment investment could grow to around 4.6 billion euros. This is directly tied to Intel needing to accelerate its cutting-edge process roadmap to win Apple as a major customer.
The market expects Intel will need to significantly expand its fleet of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems from ASML. EUV is essential for implementing advanced processes at 2 nanometers (nm) and below, and ASML is effectively the only company in the world that can supply EUV tools for mass production. The industry analyzes that as competition in advanced fine processes intensifies, equipment makers gain stronger bargaining power than foundries. In particular, there is speculation that Intel will stake everything on adopting "high-NA EUV," the highest specification currently available, to meet Apple's exacting performance requirements. In fact, Intel was the first in the world to receive and start running the system, showing an aggressive push to preempt next-generation tools ahead of rivals.
How extensively Apple taps Intel's production lines is seen as the biggest variable that will determine the future investment scale. If Intel ends up producing some application processors (AP) for iPhones, analysis suggests Intel may need to secure up to 15 additional EUV systems. If cooperation is limited to some chips for Macs or iPads, the equipment order size will likely be relatively smaller. Still, under any scenario, it remains unchanged that Intel cannot absorb Apple's volumes without large-scale new investments beyond its existing facilities.
The tailwind is not limited to front-end equipment makers. In back-end, Dutch semiconductor packaging equipment maker BE Semiconductor (Besi) is also seen as a potential beneficiary. Besi supplies hybrid bonding tools, viewed as a key technology for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors and the spread of chiplet architectures. BoA analyzed that if Apple also uses Intel's advanced packaging, Intel's orders for Besi tools could surge to as many as 182 units, far exceeding the previous estimate of around 80.
The partnership between Apple and Intel carries strategic weight for both. For Apple, the goal is strong to diversify production bases and reduce Taiwan-centric geopolitical risk and dependence on TSMC. For Intel, securing Apple as a foundry client is a bold move to shake off past struggles and prove the viability of its foundry business. In particular, with Intel in urgent need of a major customer for its 1.8-nanometer (18A) process, reuniting with Apple could instantly lift confidence in the process.
The industry notes that this issue goes beyond whether the two companies collaborate, underscoring once again the stature of equipment makers in the global semiconductor industry. As the chip power race intensifies and investments in advanced processes expand, actual revenue is concentrating on corporations that monopolize supply of core production tools such as EUV and advanced packaging. An industry official said, "Corporations that have irreplaceable technologies, like ASML or Besi, will keep hitting an 'equipment jackpot' regardless of who takes the lead in the foundry market."